Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Rapture!

8/20/2012 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

We have recently released our latest e book here at The Mint entitled:

Eschatology and Money: A brief look at what is to come

For as long as we leave it up, it can be had for free over at Smashwords.com.

As the title suggests, it is a brief look at what is to come in the monetary realm as the Biblical prophecies regarding the end of the world unfold.  While nobody can predict when or exactly how these events will play out, it is important to be aware of them and, if necessary, take the gift of time afforded us in the here and now to make the proper adjustments to one’s relationship to both their money and The Living God.

The Beauty of Rapture
Students of Eschatology will note our belief in a pre-tribulation rapture.  For those unfamiliar with the term, the concept of rapture is the taking up, out of this world, of we who accept Jesus of Nazareth as the promised Jewish Messiah.

Jesus’ life, death, and resurrection undeniably changed the world.  He is the ultimate expression of God’s mercy towards us.  To us it is logical that we are to be called up to heaven to watch God’s final judgments unfold from the safety of our new home with Him.  Admittedly, anyone who has taken the time to read the book of Revelation would be either masochistic or insane to not want to subscribe to a pre-tribulation rapture.

Even so, there are strong arguments which find support in scripture for a “mid-tribulation” rapture or even a “post-tribulation” rapture.  Further, there are those who believe that the book of Revelation is simply an allegory for events which occur from time to time throughout history.

Given the seemingly sound, yet grim, alternatives, on what basis can we have confidence that this pre-tribulation rapture is true?

As stated above, the basic logic of our worldview leads us to this conclusion.  God loves us jealously and mercifully.  He is bringing the judgments described by John to the earth to prove once and for all the He is the only God.  For those of us who already understand this, the display of sovereignty and wrath is unnecessary and inconsistent with who He is to us.

However, if God is making one last merciful attempt to call His creation to Him, the events in described in Revelation are perhaps the only way to get their attention.  The time of evangelism of the living saints will be over.  Were God to allow those of us who have already chosen to give our lives to Him to suffer further through the tribulations, it would only serve to cause confusion amongst those whom He will call during the time of tribulation.

For those who believe that God will need many witnesses at that time, would not the rapture of the saints, who would disappear without notice, be perhaps the most powerful witness since Jesus himself first appeared?  We argue that many who witness the rapture but do not partake in it will be God’s most fruitful evangelists through the tribulation that is to come.

To apply this logic to the events examined in our e book, for the believer, the test of allegiance that will take the form of the mark of the beast appears to be, has already been passed.

Beyond logic and into Beauty

Yet beyond logic, or perhaps to further affirm it, there is a beautiful symmetry between God’s first universal act of redemption, at the resurrection of Jesus which occurred on the date of a Jewish festival call the Passover, and what will be His final act of redemption before He returns to physically reign, which we believe will be at the time of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish day of atonement or judgment.  It is also known as the Feast of Trumpets.

Jason Hommel has written extensively regarding the Feast of Trumpets being the appointed time of the coming rapture of the saints.  Through his insights, we gather a greater glimpse of the beauty of Jesus’ plan to rapture His bride, the church.

For the rapture will not be an emergency airlift operation of a people in distress, this is what the day of our salvation from sin was.  No, the rapture will be Christ knocking at our door to take those who are prepared and have our lamps lit to our wedding feast with Him.

Somehow the word beauty seems inadequate.  For God has given us the model of the Jewish wedding, a seven day celebration which begins at an unexpected time.  This is consistent with the scripture, “You will know not the day nor hour, but the season.”  It is also consistent with the celebration of Rosh Hashanah, which generally takes place over a period of two days for the simple reason that no one knows exactly when the new moon, which marks its beginning, will occur.

You will notice that while we may be certain of the time of year which Jesus will come, no one is certain as to which year it will occur, nor the specific date, the only certainty is that the doors of heaven will be swung wide open at that time.

It is just as God intended it, and it is beautiful.

Rosh Hashanah for the year 5773 (or 2012, according to the Gregorian calendar) begins on September 16th.

Is your lamp lit?

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for August 20, 2012

Copper Price per Lb: $3.37
Oil Price per Barrel:  $95.83
Corn Price per Bushel:  $8.15
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  1.81%
FED Target Rate:  0.13%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,621 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY
MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  0.25%
Unemployment Rate:  8.3%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.0%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  13,272
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,308,300,000,000
M2 Monetary Base:  $10,037,100,000,000

Monday, August 20, 2012

The CTP and the Black Locust, a Lesson in Deferred Maintenance

8/15/2012 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

After a brief hiatus we return to our perch here at The Mint where we see the world very much as we left it with one glaring exception:  Prices are rising.

This phenomenon comes as no surprise to our longsuffering readers.  By our imprecise calculations, we saw that the tidal wave of money that the FED unleashed into the economies of the world would begin to hit main street circa March 2012.  We may have been a bit early, but when preparing for an inflational Tsunami, it never hurts to have a few extra months to prepare.

As prices for everything from gasoline to houses rise, it may be natural to assume that this is a temporary increase which will fade as supply and demand come gently back into balance.  For those of this opinion, most notably the members of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, we have some disturbing news.  The same imprecise calculations which gave us March 2012 as the genesis of this latest inflationary wave tell us that the Tsunami of cash will relentlessly pound the shores of consumers through AT LEAST November of 2015, and that is if the FED raises the target rate at its next meeting on September 12-13, which is highly unlikely.

Those who think that the general public can tolerate the sustained price inflation which awaits in the trappings of the current system are making a fool’s bet, for the current monetary system will not survive this Tsunami.  Our advice?  Sell financial assets and buy real things.   This is all one really needs to know about the current state of the economy.

The CTP

Our hiatus has not been spent pondering life as we know it, rather, we used the time to prepare for what we thought would be an easy professional examination to attain the CTP, or Certified Treasury Professional, designation.  We thought it would be easy for two reasons.  First and foremost, we work in treasury on a daily basis, which should have given us and edge.

Second, the exam deals with Finance and Banking concepts.  With all due respect to the bankers and financiers of the world, as an accountant by trade, we have always found finance and banking to be rather simple numerical sciences.

We passed the CPA exam back in the days when it was administered in large open convention center spaces with No. 2 pencils.  It was a two day event which was both physically and mentally exhausting.

With this mind numbing experience as our point of reference, we may be excused for thinking that a 3 hour exam and a computer testing center would be a walk in the park.

Nonetheless, we blocked off two solid weeks for which to cram for the CTP exam which, in our accountant’s arrogance, we nearly underestimated.

It turned out that the 3 hours in the testing center were not so much mentally or physically grueling as they were a mind game.  The climax of this game came at the bitter end end of the exam when, instead of flashing our results up on the screen so that we could experience the thrill of victory or agony of defeat in front of twenty others taking various nursing and other such certification exams, the computer instead forced us to take a brief survey regarding our preparation for the exam.

After the survey, the screen directed us to leave the testing center.  What did it mean?  Did we fail so horribly that the computer was too embarrassed for us to deliver the news?

As we left the room in disbelief, we were greeted by the attendant, who during the exam sat behind a glass window and observed us as one observes animals at the zoo.  She handed us a printout.

To our relief and, at this point, surprise, the word “Congratulations” appeared across the top.  We couldn’t help but smile.

And now, here we are.  While we do not feel any different, we are now one of only 23,000 Certified Treasury Professionals in the world.

The Black Locust

With the exam behind us, we prepared for some much needed R&R through the month of August.  We had taken the exam on a Friday and were still catching up on the details of life which we had eschewed during our cramm…er…preparation for the exam.

That very Saturday evening, we drifted into a type of deep sleep that only complete mental exhaustion can produce.  Our slumber was abruptly interrupted by the anxious words of our better half:

“Did you hear that?”

“Hear what?” was our groggy reply, which was a question and an answer all at once, an efficient use language which appeals only to the hopeless utilitarian’s amongst us.

“That loud sound outside…”
Black Locust, Falling Trees
“That loud sound outside…”

As we got up to do a brief inspection of the grounds, we expected to see nothing and prepared in our minds the familiar speculation that the family of raccoons which roams our neighborhood had caused the disturbance.  However, as we opened the front curtains, our jaws dropped.

The large black locust tree which graced our grounds, measuring 25 meters in height and weighing perhaps 10 tons, had split in two and come crashing to the ground in an event that most certainly registered in the Richter scale.  While God had miraculously spared the house from being crushed, the tree was sprawled across the entire front side of the lot.

At midnight, the scene was surreal, what was just minutes earlier a brief 20 second walk to the street was now an obstacle course which could only be duplicated if the producers of “Wipeout” and “Survivor” were to collaborate on a project.

Our limited inspection of the grounds revealed that the tree had split, fallen, and pinned the overhead power line firmly to the ground, snapping the mast and electrical meter from the side of our garage like a toothpick.

As we observed the damage, we took a glance up at the remaining half of the tree, which in the night looked like a giant walking ala the Lord of the Rings trilogy, at any moment prepared to bend down and snatch us up.
Black Locust, fallen tree, power line
The local ecological paradigm shift

It was just to much to process.  We fought the natural urge to fire up the chainsaw and went inside, where we moved our sleeping quarters to the rear of the home, called the power company to disconnect the line, and went to sleep.

The next morning, the neighborhood awoke in shock and awe as they saw the giant that lay slain.  Instead of continuing to recover from the exam, we began, along with our generous neighbors, the grim task of cutting a path to the street.

Two weeks on, we now have had the rest of the tree taken down and what will be, once cut, a great stash of firewood.

Now that a good portion of the grunt work is done, we pause for reflection on the lesson of the tree.
We call the lesson “Deferred maintenance.”

What the tree taught us is that there are two ways to deal with things, be they something as simple as a tree or as grandiose as a nation state’s foreign policy or the world’s financial system.  You can either pay a bit for upkeep along the way at regular intervals, or you can choose not to pay for the upkeep and simply wait to pay an unknowable price when an inevitable breakdown occurs.

In the case of the tree, we had many opportunities to have an arborist prune and treat the tree.  The tree was like a magnet for those in this line of work.  Had we chosen to invest in the upkeep, the tree would have been pruned and inspected.  If we had wanted to keep the tree, it could have been cabled together or a rod could have been placed through it to hold the rotting, diverging hulk together.  As it turned out, we did nothing until the tree collapsed and our hand was forced.

As a result, our views on trees have changed.  Where we once saw peaceful giants all around us, we now see potential house crushers waiting to collapse.

In the case of a nation state’s foreign policy, perceived threats to national interests can be dealt with via diplomacy or, if necessary, small scale skirmishes to keep adversaries either friendly or in check.  If this regular upkeep, if you will, is not performed, the nation state may wait for a Pearl Harbor type of event  to occur before being roused to taking meaningful action.

Finally, in the case of the world’s financial system, the authorities could allow for bankrupt entities to be pruned from the economic ecosystem from time to time, or wait for a blow up of the Central Banking and national currency system.

In all three cases and any number of other examples which could be called upon, it seems clear that taking the route of ongoing upkeep is the most prudent, especially when trying to preserve what is deemed to be the natural order of things.

However, those who either consciously or unconsciously take on the enormous risk associated with ignoring regular maintenance are essentially choosing not to insure themselves against a probable outcome whose only variable is the timing of the event.

If the event occurs at a time when they are not affected by it, they have come out ahead, as they will have should the event occur and turn out to be less catastrophic than had been anticipated.  Indeed, it may even be beneficial if what is really needed is not simple maintenance, but a paradigm shift.

In the case of the tree, we now have sun shining where there once was shade, ideas of what to plant in its place, and great pieces of wood which make us wish we were chainsaw artists.  None of this would have come about had the tree been encouraged to stand.

While there is much to be said for prudent maintenance, sometimes it is necessary to let things go and brace oneself for a paradigm shift, for the inevitable can only be put off so long by the machinations of mere mortals.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for August 15, 2012

Copper Price per Lb: $3.36
Oil Price per Barrel:  $94.31
Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.94
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  1.81%
FED Target Rate:  0.13%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,603 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY
MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  0.25%
Unemployment Rate:  8.3%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.0%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  13,165
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,301,800,000,000
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,941,700,000,000

Monday, June 25, 2012

The Mint’s Euro 2012 prediction – Germany loses on all fronts

6/25/2012 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

After defeating Greece in the quarterfinals, Germany will now face Italy in the Euro semifinals and, if they are victorious in there, either Spain or Portugal in the finals.  If the 2012 Euro plays out according to the most recent soveriegn credit ratings, according to Moody’s, we should expect the following outcomes from the aforementioned teams:

Germany (Aaa) defeats Greece (Ca), which already occurred on Friday.  Spain (A3) would defeat Portugal (Ba3) on Wednesday, and Germany (Aaa) would come out a hair ahead of Italy (A3).

The Germany would then come out victorious after handling Spain on July 1.

However, as Italy showed England yesterday, poor credit ratings can be overcome on the pitch.  Therefore, we are speculating that Spain will defy Moody’s and take the cup.

Spain to defy Moody’s on the pitch

Ironically, a similar scenario is set to play out at the latest emergency EU summit (we have lost track but believe that there have been at least 14 prior to this one) where the Germans are set to capitulate on not only austerity measures but also restraint on monetary policy.

As unemployment in Europe’s club med regions rises, Germans and Europe in general will be keen to avoid a repeat of the rise of the Third Reich in their neighbors to the south.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for June 25, 2012

Copper Price per Lb: $3.36
Oil Price per Barrel:  $79.31
Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.31
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  1.61%
FED Target Rate:  0.16%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,585 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY
MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  0.25%
Unemployment Rate:  8.2%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  -0.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,503
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,192,300,000,000
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,933,900,000,000

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Jamie Dimon makes a courtesy appearance before the home team

Today, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, made his courtesy appearance before the home team, the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee earlier today.

It was, for the most part, a constructive exercise.  Mr. Dimon had been called to explain something alarming, a $2 billion loss due to hedges gone awry in what is essentially the banks internal treasury operations.  Alarming as it may be, the losses fell entirely on the backs for JPM’s shareholders.

It was a stark contrast to the lambasting that Jon Corzine, former bureaucrat and MF Global chief, recieved by committees from both the House and Senate after his firm “lost” $1.6 billion of client funds.  As JPMorgan was the counterparty to the transfer of a portion of those funds, it was only natural that a few questions with regards to the infamous event would find their way to Mr. Dimon today.

Generally, Mr. Dimon gave an impressive show in front of the home team crowd.  As the largest bank on the planet and a Treasury Primary Dealer, JPMorgan may be one of the largest direct and indirect purchasers of US Bond issues.  For the most part, the Senators were kind to their biggest customer.  You can see the entire testimony here.
Some observations from The Mint:
  • Mr. Dimon knows what he is doing.
  • There is a reason that JPM is the banker and/or key liquidity provider of many smaller banks and sovereign nations.
  • It was brought up that loans are the riskiest investments that a bank makes, and JPM is no exception.
  • The term “hedging” is widely misunderstood.  Most take it to mean a trade made to eliminate risk, when in practice hedging has the effect of diversifying a portfolio of investments, often using leverage to do so.
  • Mr. Dimon’s brief response about the need for fewer regulations which are enforced rather thatn the myriad of regulators which lack expertise and authority was classic.
  • The US fiscal cliff will not wait until December 31, 2012 to produce derogatory effects.  Individuals and businesses will begin to take actions to protect themselves long before the deadline approaches.
  • One of the Senators observed that the US Treasury ran a “loss” of $4 billion per day, twice the amount that Mr. Dimon’s firm had lost on its renegade trades. 
  • Most of the Senators, while well intentioned, are absolutely clueless about the inner workings of a modern banking entity.  Which begs the question, what qualifies them to regulate one?
  • JPMorgan is not to big to fail, rather, it is too big to save were it to fail.
  • One cannot apply the hedging and investment strategies of the world’s largest bank to the entire banking industry.
  • JPMorgan is in a league of its own, and thus is required to take risks on the scale which is difficult to fathom.
  • Mr. Dimon places little faith in models, which at best are a reflection of the immediate past and useless for future decision making.
  • New regulation costs as a result of legislation inspired by the financial crisis for JPMorgan were estimated to be upwards of $1 billion.
  • It is not below the Senate to play the “US Taxpayer is on the hook” card when speaking with a banker, incorrectly implying that the US Taxpayer somehow thought that TARP and everything after was necessary and stands ready to take similar actions should a bank get in trouble.
Much of the testimony was peppered with the common theme from the Senators “how should we regulate you?”

While Mr. Dimon took the opportunity to point out that the so called Volcker rule was a bad, which is what has dominated headlines about today’s hearing, He did point out that JP Morgan’s survival was not dependant upon TARP and other bailouts, as has been suggested.

The message?  Don’t regulate us and don’t save us.

In the end, isn’t that what True Capitalism is all about?

Monday, June 11, 2012

Spain, Inc., the latest proof of Anarchy in action, an impromptu Manifesto


6/11/2012 Portland, Oregon - Pop in your mints…
When we attended graduate school in Spain, we were the first North American student in our course.  It was late 2003 and the Eurozone was full of optimism.  This optimism lead some of the professors to use a portion of their class time taunt the US model as failed and the European model as the obvious way forward.
As proof of European supremacy, our Finance professor often made a point of mentioning to us that the yields on the Spanish 10yr bond were almost the equivalent to the yields on the US 10yr bond.
What a difference nine years and 500 basis points make.
Circa 2012, Spain dominates the financial headlines as the latest casualty of the European debt crisis.  Apparently Spain now is in need of a bailout.  The bailout strategy which will be employed by Spain, Inc. is a hybrid of the prior bailouts accepted by their counterparts, Greece, Inc. and Ireland, Inc.
Greece, Inc. required a bailout because its government was broke.  Ireland, Inc. was slightly more ingenious in that it made a good faith effort to backstop its banks, only to find that it was now the entity which required a backstop.  Spain, Inc, theoretically learning from both experiences, forced its banks to accept the backstop directly so that the Spanish government could save face and be spared the humiliation of the Irish scenario.
Unfortunately, the markets have seen through the charade and are now putting pressure on all bonds, bank or sovereign, which hail from the Iberian Peninsula.
What a difference nine years and 500 basis points make!
Spain's strategy has failed before it was even implemented for lack of collateral and credibility, both of which are in desperately short supply amongst the EU leadership.
How did once proud Europe end up in this situation?  They decided to force a debt based currency integration by integrating only the currency part of the equation and leaving the debt and fiscal matters to chance.
As if choosing to use a debt based currency weren't bad enough, choosing only to implement the currency is like handing the nations foolish enough to engage in such a gamble the revolver in a game of Russian roulette where the revolver is fully loaded.
Now, the revolver is being passed and it is Spain's turn.  Once Spain slumps to the floor, it is Italy's turn, the Belgium, France, etc. until the European Currency Union, doomed from its outset, breathes its last.
At some point in the process, possibly as Spain pulls the trigger, USA, Inc. will be forced to step in with the "ultimate" backstop, the final hope of the failed, insane "debt is money" currency regime.  As the US throws its sovereign credit rating in front of the runaway freight train of Europe's soveriegns, it will quickly find itself in the very situation that it is trying to save the European Sovereigns from.
For in this debt crisis, the unwritten rule of quality holds.  When one adds wine to sewage, one gets sewage.  When one adds sewage to wine, one gets sewage.  The sovereign vats have long since been polluted.  It might make sense to check one's portfolio and remove as much sewage as possible.
Beyond that, we will present two unsolicited yet practical bits of advice.  First, US Bonds will ultimately slide as USA, Inc. wades across the pond to aid Europe.  The Euro currency will rally as the run on European banks by the citizens and the wholesale dumping of any bond denominated in the currency begins.  Quite simply, demand for the Euro will exceed supply in the short term.
Plan accordingly.
We submit to you that the Spain, Inc. debacle is further evidence of one of The Mint's central themes, that Anarchy is man’s reality, it is an ultimate given, it simply is, and all understanding of the current political and social structures is greatly facilitated by one’s acceptance of this fact.
In fact, one’s ability to act and react to the unfolding changes in the current political and social structures depends upon accepting and embracing Anarchy as the basis for reality and learning to operate in the Truly Capitalistic system which organically emerges as men learn anew that mutual trust and cooperation are in their rightly understood self interests, and that he who is to lead must truly become the servant of all.
To truly embrace this fact, we must understand the nature of mankind.  Man, left to his own devices, is completely devoid of the ability to do the right thing.  He doesn’t have it in him.  He is lazy, self-serving, and completely evil.  He needs God and his fellow man to be able to do anything productive, altruistic, or what may be considered remotely good.  A full defense of this statement is a subject for another day (although the evidence is all around us), we mention it here only to underscore the necessity of a framework which presupposes this fact within which mankind can use this weakness to avoid both self and mutual destruction.
The only reliable framework which has emerged out of natural Anarchy which not only addresses the problem of human nature, but also turn man’s weaknesses into strengths is what we call True Capitalism.  Ironically, by allowing market forces to work with as little hindrance as possible, mankind can insulate itself from descending into chaos and catastrophe.
In fact, to fight the workings of True Capitalism is, by default, to submit oneself to chaos and misery.  Yet every nation on the planet is devoted to some degree in the fight against True capitalism.  Why?  Because the nation state sells itself as the most perfect expression of man’s good intentions, which we presuppose do not exist.  In other words, the dream of the nation state is built on a false pretense that is usually attributed to socialism: That man is inherently good and wants to do good to others.
Given their presuppositions, is it clear that the nation state and a truly capitalistic society are, in fact, the antithesis of one another.  Where a nation state regulates by edict,  truly capitalistic society regulates by example.  Where a nation state is rigid, where  truly capitalistic society is pliable.  Hence, where  truly capitalistic society will bend but not break, the nation state is repeatedly smashed to pieces when faced with change.
For the more a nation state tries to force men to do good, the more mankind's character flaws will overtake these good intentions until the nation state becomes an expression of mankind's evil nature.
The truly capitalistic society allows each mans evil nature to be corrected by allowing him to experience the consequences of his inherently poor behavior, paradoxically and naturally improving the behavior and norms of all.
Moving to a less philosophical level, how can we be sure that Anarchy is the basis of man’s current existence?  The evidence can be found in that the institutions which supposedly offer the best option to Anarchy, the nation states if the world, are beginning to succumb to the punishments they have built up in their losing fight against natural law.
Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, and now Spain, Inc. are now succumbing to the inevitable.  The member of club med which turns from the failure of the Euro currency to go it alone and embrace the much feared "Anarchy," as it were, paradoxically stands to be richly rewarded by the flocks of tourists who can suddenly afford a European vacation without the Euro.
We conclude with a brief manifesto for your perusal and enjoyment.  What does the future hold?
Out of Anarchy, a Truly Capitalistic System will ORGANICALLY emerge, and with it a new dawn for humanity, built on mutual interest and almost endless capital formation which will engender a spontaneous and dynamic social order, a society without borders that would enjoy freedom and prosperity that we cannot even imagine under current conditions.
Believe.
Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.
Stay Fresh!
Key Indicators for June 11, 2012
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,596 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY