Natural Law: the transcendental importance of Supply, Demand, and Equilibrium Prices

11/10/2011 Portland, Oregon - Pop in your mints…

As Europe continues to unravel, we have been exploring, perhaps by accident, the foundations of society here at The Mint.  In case you have missed it, here is a brief recap:

Anarchy, the lack of government, is man’s natural state.  It is an ultimate given.  It simply is.  A clear understanding of the current state of affairs depends upon grasping this inescapable fact.

In response to Anarchy, man has two choices.  He can choose to mutually cooperate with his fellow man, respecting both his fellow man’s right to live and his right to property or He can choose to take his fellow man’s life and property through the use of force.

In other words, man may choose the path of True Capitalism or Might Makes Right.  Ideologically, there is no middle ground.  In practice, men live at various points on the spectrum between these two extremes.

We have argued that True Capitalism is the response which creates the greatest benefits to society in terms of peace, security, capital accumulation and material prosperity while the ideology of Might Makes Right by definition is the antithesis of the Truly Capitalistic ideology and consequently would create the greatest detriment to society.

Ironically, all of the Nation States in existence derive their power from the adoption of the Might Makes Right ideology by a majority of the people.  How, then, can we be so certain that True Capitalism is the proper response to Anarchy if the majority has embraced Might Makes Right?

The proof of the superiority of True Capitalism is that it allows man to best adapt and react to the inescapable demands of Natural Law.  Like Anarchy, Natural Law is immutable.  It simply is.  Man is bound to it whether he chooses to recognize it or not.  It does not change, for Its statutes are etched in the foundations of the earth itself.

It is as Ayn Rand stated:  “You can ignore reality, but you can’t ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.”

In our example, we take the reality that Rand refers to as Natural Law.  Natural Law may be ignored, but ignorance always comes at a price. 

The first of these Natural Laws is that of supply and demand.  The Law of supply and demand, simply stated, holds that supply of and demand for a good or service will tend to find a point of equilibrium at a certain price expressed in terms of money (the equilibrium price).  On a graph the relationship looks like this:



A Graphical Representation of Supply, Demand, and Equilibrium Price



It is a way of expressing what most people intuitively know about price and scarcity.  When an item is increasing in price, one of two things is happening.  Either people are demanding more of the good or service or the supply of the item at the previous equilibrium price point is diminishing.

Naturally, the opposite is also true.  When an item is decreasing in price, one of two things is happening.  Either people are demanding less of the good or service or the supply of the item at the previous equilibrium price point is increasing.

In either case, the change in the price of the item in monetary terms is providing crucial information to all of those either producing or consuming the good or service in question, for it guides their inherent speculations.

(Editors Note:  Speculation, far from being an illegal or immoral activity, is essential to everyday survival and without it, there is no hope of achieving equilibrium prices and therefore both production and consumption tend to cease.  It is important to clarify that the illegal or immoral speculation that is villianized today is generally the act of investing the money of other parties in types of speculations without the knowledge or consent of the other party to do so.)

As a producer, if one sees the price of the good or service that one provides increase, the producer will strive (speculate, as it were) to either increase production to take advantage of the opportunity to profit and/or others will strive to produce the good or offer the service for which the price is increasing.

As a consumer, if one if one sees the price of the good or service that one consumes increase, the consumer will strive to either decrease consumption to mitigate the effects of the higher prices or others will strive to find a less expensive substitute for the good or service  to offer in the place of the good or service for which the price is increasing.

Stay focused, here comes the important part.  The increase in production will increase supply which, as the Natural Law of supply and demand dictates, will eventually lower the equilibrium price as the increase in demand is satisfied.  Likewise the decrease in demand will have the effect of increasing the available supply. 

In either case, the individual decisions (again, speculations, as it were) of the producers and consumers serve to increase the available supply.  The process occurs tacitly, and is an example of what Adam Smith famously called the Invisible hand of the market.

To further sum it up in what may seem at first a paradox, the best cure for higher prices is higher prices.

There are no exemptions from the natural law of supply and demand, however, there are numerous examples of Nation States, guided by the principal that Might Makes Right, manipulating the pure message that price is intended to send to producers and consumers.

This manipulation may be achieved in overt ways, such as price controls (the setting the price of an item by decree).  However, most people understand that price controls are bad, so today’s Nation States commonly resort to other tactics.  Amongst these tactics are taxes, subsidies, and the granting exclusive privileges to either buy or sell the good or service in question via regulating the purchase of or granting monopolies to produce it.

Regardless of the tactic employed, the result is to always a manipulation of the equilibrium price for a good or service and consequently distort the signal which guides the speculations and ultimately the actions of all producers and consumers.  The result of society as a whole is always and in every case achieving suboptimum results to those that would be achieved if the price signal were as pure as possible.

In the case of Central Banking and centralized currency control, the Nation State, in addition to the tinkering mentioned above, adds the complication of manipulating the currency that the equilibrium prices are expressed in.  This further distorts the sacred price signal that is universally relied upon to direct the actions of producers and consumers.

You can imagine the confusion occurring all around us, every day.

The True Capitalist ideology, on the other hand, completely subjects itself completely to the law of supply and demand and, in return, provides producers and consumers with best opportunity to obtain and act on the most accurate price information possible.

A Truly Capitalist society quickly settles on Gold and/or Silver as currency and does not recognize the right of anyone to tax, regulate, or grant monopolies. The Truly Capitalist Society continually works to bring supply and demand into balance in the simplest, most efficient way possible:  By relinquishing all control to the market participants and by extension, natural law.

Inefficiency is naturally wrung from the system as firms that depend upon the false price signals or special protections or subsidies provided under the Might Makes Right ideology quickly go out of business.

True Capitalism not only quickly eliminates economic waste, it quickly directs the surplus capital into its most urgently needed employ, and it is accomplished by simply obeying and embracing the natural law of supply and demand.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  For more ideas and commentary please check out The Mint at http://www.davidmint.com/
Key Indicators for November 10, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.39
Oil Price per Barrel:  $98.04

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.49  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.07%
FED Target Rate:  0.08%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,749 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,861  

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,122,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!!  THE ANIMALS ARE LEAVING THE ZOO!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,507,600,000,000 YIKES UP $1 Trillion in one year!!!!!!!

Responses to Anarchy: True Capitalism vs. Might Makes Right

11/9/2011 Portland, Oregon - Pop in your mints…

We have been mulling over the basic tenets of True Capitalism, the economic system which is man’s most productive response to the state of Anarchy in which he finds himself.  Far from being an undesirable reign of chaos, Anarchy, the absence of government, is the natural state of man.  If Anarchy is simply an ultimate given, then it is man’s response to Anarchy that must be examined.

In response to this natural state, man has two options:  He can choose to mutually cooperate with his fellow man, respecting both his fellow man’s right to live and his right to property or He can choose to take his fellow man’s life and property through the use of force.

In other words, man may choose the path of True Capitalism or Might Makes Right.  Ideologically, there is no middle ground.  In practice, men live at various points on the spectrum between these two extremes.

What may come as a surprise is that all of the Nation States on the planet have come into existence by and base their operations on the principal of Might Makes Right.  No matter how much freedom the Nation State may allow its citizens, it must be recognized that the Nation State stakes its claim on the individual’s life at birth, by declaring them a citizen and in many cases requiring either military service or registration to be conscripted into military service should the nation state deem it necessary.  The Nation State then stakes its claim on the individual’s property through either taxation or a myriad of rules and regulations regarding the use of said property.

Far from being an ultimate given, the Nation State, at a basic level, is an entity which provides varying levels of security and welfare services.  What differentiates the Nation State from other agencies providing security and welfare services (think security firms and insurance companies) is that the Nation State enjoys a geographic monopoly which it enforces by both the threat and use of violence against its captive audience, otherwise known as citizens.

Responses to Anarchy:  True Capitalism vs. Might Makes Right

This is the world today, and any sober look at the facts will lead one to conclude that man has chosen Might Makes Right as the dominant response to our Anarchic natural state.

Yet there is a better way.  True freedom and prosperity can be found by embracing True Capitalism and abandoning the Might Makes Right doctrine.  In contrast to Might Makes Right, a revolution cannot be undertaken to change man’s response to Anarchy from Might Makes Right to True Capitalism by violence, for by definition violence is simply a furthering of the Might Makes Right response, not a step towards a Truly Capitalistic society.

As the famous David Wilcox lyric goes:  “resentment doesn’t die with the dead”

Rather, a revolution which would naturally, by definition, bring about a Truly Capitalistic society involves rejecting all aspects of the Might Makes Right doctrine.  It involves renouncing any and all choices which make use of violence, whether undertaken personally or by directing the Nation State to use violence on one’s behalf, to take the life or property of another while at the same time asserting one’s rights to have their own life and property respected as inviolate.

On the surface, a Truly Capitalistic society may not look that different from the current structure of things.  There may arise security and insurance companies which serve geographical areas in tandem in such a way that they closely resemble current Nation States.  However, assuming that the paradigm is changed and man truly embraces Truly Capitalistic ideology, nobody will be compelled under the threat of violence to be a client of the security or insurance company.  Rather, individuals holding property would be free to choose between defending and securing their own property and income streams or voluntarily contracting with the security and insurance companies for these services.

In a Truly Capitalistic society, the division of labor would flourish and the property and resources would quickly pass from unproductive hands to productive hands, organically balancing the competing goals of maximizing output and capital preservation.

Companies who abuse their clients would quickly be abandoned and weakened while those who deliver the best service and value to their clients would prosper and attract more clients.  This rule naturally applies equally to security and insurance companies in stark contrast to the monopoly on these services currently claimed by the Nation State.

The lack of compulsion under the threat of violence is the key difference between the response of True Capitalism and Might Makes Right.  Might Makes Right naturally engenders fear and evokes a response to others based on this fear.  True Capitalism engenders, encourages, and rewards trust and evokes a response of trust in others.

Only upon this trust can a truly free and prosperous society blossom.

The choice between True Capitalism and Might Makes Right is one which must be made.  Anarchy demands a response, and these two options are the only responses known to man.  All other supposed choices are simply points on the spectrum between these extremes, but the choice of guiding ideology determines where man and society are moving along this continuum. 

The ideologies of True Capitalism and Might Make Right are like magnets, and remaining at a point in between them on the continuum is not an option, for society is always being pulled in one direction or the other depending upon the dominant ideology adopted by a majority of the people.

This is an ideological battle which must be won if mankind is to survive and prosper.  Life and death are laid before us.  Choose life, that you may live.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  For more ideas and commentary please check out The Mint at http://www.davidmint.com/

Key Indicators for November 9, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.44
Oil Price per Barrel:  $97.42

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.61  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  1.96%
FED Target Rate:  0.08%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,789 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.0%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,936  

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,122,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!! THE ANIMALS ARE LEAVING THE ZOO!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,507,600,000,000 YIKES UP $1 Trillion in one year!!!!!!!

The FED draws on its RRP Revolvers; Inflation solves the National Budget crisis and crushes the poor

11/8/2011 Portland, Oregon - Pop in your mints…

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than output” – Milton Friedman

Today we came across evidence that the massive amounts of money created out of thin air may no longer be benignly parked at the Federal Reserve.  From Lee Adler at the wallstreetexaminer.com:

“The Fed was hit with withdrawals of $83.3 billion last Wednesday, the largest withdrawals from its deposit accounts that were not associated with quarterly tax payments since February of 2009…The Fed was apparently forced to take extraordinary measures to fund these withdrawals. These included the outright sale of nearly $24 billion in its Treasury note and bond holdings from the System Open Market Account. As a result, the Fed’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) fell to $2.611 trillion, some $43 billion below the Fed’s stated target of $2.654 trillion.”

Could this be the reason that Italian Bonds yields are surging and the ECB cut rates unexpectedly last week?

Could this be the reason that the BoJ had to expand its Yen debasement program to the tune of 5 trillion yen?

Ever since the FED opened swap lines with foreign central banks, it has generally been the FED lending money to the foreign banks to assure liquidity.  In this unexpected turn, the FED had to call in some of those loans to meet its own liquidity needs.



The FED is forced to draw on its RRP Revolvers

 Could this be the first of what history will call a “Central Bank Run”?  Only time will tell, but we would expect the FED to announce another, large scale dose of QE (Quantitative Easing) of its own in the next few weeks in an attempt to meet a similar event with fresh cash instead of a disruptive firing of its RRP revolvers.

In a way, this is the moment that the FED and all of the taxing authorities on the planet have been waiting for.  Inflation is a government’s best friend.  It allows the wealth destruction that these defense and welfare agencies engage in to continue while socializing the costs in a manner that is imperceptible to the untrained eye.

Even the Deficit Super Committee is onto this fact.  They are now discussing the use of the “Chained Consumer Price Index (CPI)” in place of the current CPI calculation for everything from Social Security COLAs to tax brackets to welfare qualification thresholds.  From AP:Do you see how it works, fellow taxpayer?  Inflation, combined with statistical shenanigans intended to mask it, is the magic pill for broken government finances.  It is no secret that the Government’s finances are a disaster, which is why we expect to inflation in generous doses.

“Just as 55 million Social Security recipients are about to get their first benefit increase in three years, Congress is looking at reducing future raises by adopting a new measure of inflation that also would increase taxes for most families –(with) the biggest impact falling on those with low incomes.

If adopted across the government, the inflation measure would have widespread ramifications. Future increases in veterans' benefits and pensions for federal workers and military personnel would be smaller. And over time, fewer people would qualify for Medicaid, Head Start, food stamps, school lunch programs and home heating assistance than under the current measure.

Taxes would go up by $60 billion over the next decade because annual adjustments to the tax brackets would be smaller, resulting in more people jumping into higher tax brackets because their wages rose faster than the new inflation measure. Annual increases in the standard deduction and personal exemptions would become smaller.”

How exactly does “Chained CPI” differ from the current CPI calculation?  The article goes on to explain:

“Many economists argue that the chained CPI is more accurate because it assumes that as prices increase, consumers switch to lower cost alternatives, reducing the amount of inflation they experience. 

For example, if the price of beef increases while the price of pork does not, people will buy more pork. Or, as opponents mockingly argue, if the price of home heating oil goes up, people will turn down their heat and wear more sweaters.”

Are you laughing yet?  Perhaps crying?  Now listen to how the Government justifies it:

“A report by the Moment of Truth Project, a group formed to promote the deficit reduction package produced by President Barack Obama's deficit commission late last year, supports a new inflation measure. "Rather than serving to raise taxes and cut benefits, switching to the chained CPI would simply be fulfilling the mission of properly adjusting for cost of living," it argues.”

After all, you can always put on a sweater, right?

Where the Government’s logic, and ultimately society, begins to break down is at the point when all prices, beef, pork, heating oil, and sweaters begin to rise astronomically in tandem with each other.  At that point, it becomes painfully obvious that the problem lies in the currency, not with the producers. 

Unfortunately, at that point, the Government will have long since vilified and persecuted speculators and producers for alleged price gouging to the point that the productive part of society, those who grow food and produce raw materials, will have completely ceased to produce and/or fled the country.  The subsequent lack of production will result in an increasingly scarce stock of real goods being quickly priced and re-priced in a currency which is produced at an incredible surplus.

In layman’s terms, these events will be summed up in the phrase “hyperinflation.”

If the FED has to draw once again on its RRP revolvers, it will be clear that the benign growth in the M2 money supply will have become malignant, and that hyperinflation will soon be in full bloom.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  For more ideas and commentary please check out The Mint at http://www.davidmint.com/

Key Indicators for November 8, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.54
Oil Price per Barrel:  $96.44

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.63  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.01%
FED Target Rate:  0.09%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,737 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.0%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,040  

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,122,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!! THE ANIMALS ARE LEAVING THE ZOO!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,507,600,000,000 YIKES UP $1 Trillion in one year!!!!!!!

The Dow Rises against a Wave of Bad News, The Inflation Mega-Trend Releases Caged Currency into the Wild

11/7/2011 Portland, Oregon - Pop in your mints…

The fairy tale of the world’s current financial system continued today.  Stocks crept higher in the face of what seems to be a deluge of bad news:

“Frustration mounts for MF Global clients” – Jon Corzine’s firm cannot account for $600 million in client funds.  Beyond the inability to deliver client funds on demand, MF Global clients began receiving margin calls as their collateral with the firm vanished.  The ripple effect was so severe that commodities exchanges relaxed their margin rules in order to to avoid wider damage.  The fall of MF Global was like an earthquake, now it is time to brace for the financial Tsunami.

“New Census data raise number of poor to 49 million” – The official poverty rate is 15.1%.  However, it hits 16% when you slide the income bar just a bit higher to $24,343 for a family of four.  In other words, one in six Americans is currently living below this slightly adjusted poverty measure.

“Italy bond yields soar; euro zone troubles deepen” – Lest we forget that the euro financial system is a complete disaster, Italian yields are climbing and the Italian bond market is beginning to resemble the leaning tower of Pisa.  Then came reports that Spain only had 20 billion Euros in reserves at the end of August (they must have spent their savings on vacation!) and as their banking system crumbles, they are largely helpless to intervene to save it.  Meanwhile France is now pushing austerity leaving Germany and the ECB as the only backstops in Europe.

Yet in spite of this disasterous news, the Dow is holding just above 12,000.  What does it mean? 

Far from signaling economic recovery, the action appears to be further evidence that what Nadeem Walayat at the Market Oracle calls the Inflation Mega-Trend (and consequent Stealth Bull Market in stocks) is firmly in place.

The Mega-Trend, as Mr. Walayat calls it, is the simultaneous debasement of the currency and spreading of deflationary propaganda intended to delay the public’s reaction to the inflation caused by said debasement. 

Think about it, while the FED, ECB, BoJ, and nearly every other Central Bank in the world pump money into their financial systems in order to “fight deflation” or “stimulate the export market,” the average person has watched gas, food, and the price of nearly everything else (besides their paycheck) steadily rise over the past decade.

The the public is told that these steady increases are “healthy inflation” which is currently “understood” to be roughly 2% a year.  This 2% in reality represents the indirect tax rate imposed on anyone who chooses to hold a currency as an asset or accept the currency as wages.  There is not time here to properly refute the fallacy that inflation is somehow necessary for GDP growth.  However, inflation is useful and absolutely necessary to keep an insane, “debt is money”, ponziesque, wealth destroying monetary system functioning.

As the Central Bank creates trillions of dollars out of thin air in a vain attempt to stabilize the global financial system, the public is told that it this new currency is "benign" because most of the money is being held on deposit at the Federal Reserve simply to buffer the banks against falling asset prices and keep the ATM machines spitting out cash.

Yet, with the stock market maintaining its optimism in the face of seeming insurmountable odds, can you be sure that the FED’s funny money is safely locked up in its electronic vaults, simply waiting to have foreclosed properties written off against it? 

Will all of this freshly printed money really be content to simply die a quiet death, never having run through an ATM or point of sale transaction in the real world?

Oh, fellow taxpayer, we have our doubts.  You should too. 
More tomorrow.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

P.S.  For more ideas and commentary please check out The Mint at www.davidmint.com

 

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for November 7, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.56
Oil Price per Barrel:  $95.63

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.53  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  1.99%
FED Target Rate:  0.09%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,796 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.0%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,068  

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,122,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!! THE ANIMALS ARE LEAVING THE ZOO!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,507,600,000,000 YIKES UP $1 Trillion in one year!!!!!!!