Showing posts with label gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gold. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

The currency war to end all currency wars


1/29/2013 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…
With Japan’s recent aggressive devaluation of the Yen, the financial news has again taken up the phrase “currency war” to describe any lack of coordination in the steady devaluation of fiat currencies across the globe.
In a recent piece over at the Financial Times, Niall Ferguson identifies the Bank of England as the current winner in the stealth currency war that is currently being waged.  While the Bank of England may be the winner, the losers are not other nations, as the term war would suggest, but rather the savings of those who are unfortunate to count bank accounts or debt instruments denominated in national currencies among their assets.
Who, then, are the winners in what we have dubbed the currency war to end all currency wars?  In a simplified sense, those who hold the Dow Jones Industrial stock index (not the individual stocks, which are, in the final analysis, a crap shoot) and those who own gold.

In an attempt to illustrate this point while at the same time saving 1,000 words, should the old adage hold true, we have created the following graph, which plots a normalization (which brings the sheer magnitude of the numbers down to a workable scale) of the M1 and M2 monetary measures against both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and gold prices, all averaged on a monthly basis since April of 1968.
Graph of Normalized DJIA and Gold assets classes vs. M1, M2, and Federal Funds Rate measures
Graph of normalized DJIA and Gold assets classes vs. M1, M2, and Federal Funds Rate measures
Those with a keen eye will notice that the only data point that has been on a downward trend since the US Dollar was officially released from the shackles of the gold standard on August 15, 1971 has been the Federal Funds Rate, which in theory should have an inverse relationship with all of the other data points.
We will leave you with three observations from our graphic exercise:
1.  The most volatile of the two asset data sets has been that of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  However, despite its volatility, its overall trend tends to follow that of the M2, or expanded, money supply measure.
2.  The more stable of the two asset data sets has been gold, which has generally lagged growth in the M1, or base money supply to which it was tied to pre 1971.  Beginning in the year 2000, gold again began to follow the M1 trend.
3.  The light blue line, which tracks the Federal Funds Rate, has been on a downtrend.  The upticks in the Federal Funds Rate, in theory, should have lead to downward ticks in the M1 and M2   As you can see from the graph, this is not the case.
The conclusion of this brief analysis is the following:  Holding Stock Indices such as the Dow Jones should give some measure of protection against inflation over the long term, perhaps even superior to gold.  However, since 2000, gold has held steady as an inflation hedge and generally will have less liquidity risk than stocks.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, is that upwards changes in the Federal Funds rate, even those as dramatic as were experienced during the Volcker years, have little or no effect on the near term trajectory of the M1 and M2 monetary measures and h

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Of Money and Metals: The Operation of a Free Money Supply Explained

We’ve been at it again!  Be the first to download our newest e-book,  now available on Smashwords and Amazon’s Kindle:

Of Money and Metals: The Operation of a Free Money Supply Explained

Of Money and Metals: The Operation of a Free Money Supply Explained is Volume II in the “Why what we use as Money Matters” series. Of Money and Metals presents the fallacies of the current day practice of circulating debt in the place of money and explains the urgent need for and the operation of a free money supply. This volume also explores the phenomenon of Bitcoins and digital currencies.

It is available to our dear readers for free until January 31, 2013 at smashwords.com, just enter coupon code: MA65L

Thank you for your support!

Of Money and Metals by David MInt

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Open Debauchery of the Money Supply

12/21/2012 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

As the world carries on we offer a glimpse of what is to come.  Two playful headlines that have appeared in the past two days which is essentially an advertisement that inflation has taken hold and will not soon go away:


This article confirms what metals watchers have known for some time now, that the US Mint will have to change the content of pennies and nickels, at a minimum.  The Nickel inflation hedge we’ve mentioned before is about to go into effect.  You can read the gory details in the US Mint’s 2012 Biennial Report to Congress on the matter.

Next, we see that, strangely it seems, demand for $100 bills has begun to pick up.


It appears that the dollar debasement is hitting main street.  To keep tabs on the matter, we refer you to the M2 money supply which we present below in our Key Statistics.
The debauchery of the US currency is now hitting the street, which may mean its days are numbered.  Once the moronic Fiscal Cliff and the upcoming Debt ceiling redux in March 2013 are resolved, the party will begin in earnest.

We reckon that over the next few months there will be a narrow window to get precious metals at what, in retrospect, will be a bargain price.  We look for the price to rise in fits and starts from early January through March, then take off through May.  Part of this is seasonal, and part of it is the debauchery related above.  However, it is the debauchery which will punctuate the upcoming move.
We would like to take this opportunity to send you all a big hug and wish you and yours a Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday Season from us here at the Mint!

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!



Key Indicators for December 21 2012

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Is Fiduciary money really money or cleverly disguised debt?

Back on April 30th, we shared this brief but informative interaction over at our main site, http://davidmint.com we reproduce it here for your reading pleasure.  Enjoy!
4/30/2012 Portland, Oregon -Pop in your mints…
As money managers are frantically rebalancing their portfolios in a vain effort to get out of the way of Apple’s 20 point decline and Spain’s central bank, whose reason for existing we cannot conjure at the moment, consults experts in toxic assets because it apparently cannot figure out how to perform the most basic of banking functions:  Writing down bad assets, we are waxing philosophical here at The Mint.
We will give the Spaniards the benefit of the doubt and assume that they know what should be done with the toxic assets, they just do not want to appear to have admitted that the vile sludge on the balance sheets of nearly all spanish banking institutions are worse than worthless without getting an expert opinion. 
The defunct Spanish Central Bank looking for unsophisticated Investors to clean their banking system's septic tank
These are smart people, no doubt, the money managers and central bankers involved in the debacle that is the western financial system, circa 2012.  It is for this reason that there should be great cause for concern when they appear completely uncapable of functioning when things do not go the way they planned.
For example, a properly functioning banking system would have no problem figuring out what to do with non-performing loans (the common name for the toxic assets that the central bankers so dread).  In fact, a properly functioning banking system, where real and not limitless fiduciary money was at stake, would have created an adequate quality control system to ensure that very few financial assets of the toxic variety live to see the light of day.  Those that did see the light of day would have beem properly discounted them to a point where all of their toxic side effects could be properly cleaned up should they spill over.
We must assume, then, that there is something dreadfully wrong with the banking system.  But what is it?
We began to ponder this question last week when we saw a post by an Ivy League trained economist.  The assertion that fiduciary money is money bothered us to the point where we were compelled to jump in to correct this unintentional error.
The Ivy league trained economist indulged us for a time and then, for reasons unknown, disabled commenting on the post.  We interpret this action as a concession of the point we are trying to make, either that or they just wanted to get rid of us, which, given our obvious charm, we can only assume is not the case.
What is important is that the post brought up a fallacy which we see it as part of our mission here at The Mint to debunk.
The fallacy, which is widely accepted as fact by money managers and Spanish central bankers alike, is that fiduciary money operates like money when in reality it is nothing more than a debt instrument in disguise. 
So which is it?  Is The Mint off its rocker or is there something to the error of this ”debt is money” point of view, as in, it is causing otherwise intelligent people to act in more and more absurd ways as the inevitable consequences of using debt as money rear their ugly head?
Simply stated, is fiduciary money really money, as the name implies, or is it technically debt?  It is a fine point that, to be honest, does not matter to most people on the planet, for what is commonly known as fiduciary money tends to operate as money in a way that is imperceptable to the members of society…until it doesn’t.
The true essence of fiduciary money is not money at all, but debt.  Granted, it may be a highly liquid and highly transferable form of debt, but that does not change the fact that when it is created at the bank, be it a local or central bank, it represents a debt of that bank, regardless of the ability of said bank to redeem the fiduciary money for specie money, which is what we hold out as worthy of the term money for purposes of analysis.
As you can see from our presentation of the interaction below, we attempted, in good faith, to convince the Ivy League trained economist that Federal Reserve notes, as their name implies, are debt and not money.
I have redacted the amicable interaction to highlight the applicable text of our interaction as it pertains to the case in point, is fiduciary money really money?
Please read on and decide for yourself.
{Editor’s note:  Out of respect for the Ivy League trained economist, we have removed all references to their identity, for it is not our intent to shame, discredit, or launch any form of personal attack on them, but rather, the fallacy surrounding mainstream economics’ treatment of fiduciary money in its analysis}.
The Mint (in response to the intial post):
I would like to point out that fiduciary money is not money, but rather debt which carries in its value a monetary premium which the market has chosen to assign it.
Ivy League trained economist:
“Perhaps this helps you David Mint. I wrote this back on March 8th.
{Link to content further asserting that fiduciary money is money, removed to protect economist’s identity}
The Mint:
Thanks again, however, I still cannot concede your assertions that Federal Reserve notes are money, rather, they are a debt instrument, which is often referred to as fiduciary money.
The proof of this lies in that Federal Reserve notes pay interest and trade at an implied discount rate, whereas money simply trades against other goods in a varying relationship determined by the relative scarcity of resources.
Both circulate as currency in a normal economy, but the rigidity of debt makes it unsuitable for obligatory legal tender.
It is a fine point that is categorically overlooked, but the more one forces debt into the role of money, the greater the disconnect between the activities of men and the resources available to support those activities.
I would love to hear a convincing argument that debt is money if you have one in your archives.
Thanks again and all the best!
Ivy League trained economist:
“Decidedly David Mint, Federal Reserve notes do not pay interest. There isn’t anyone on earth paying interest to anyone else who is holding a $5 bill in his wallet.
Here, David, disabuse yourself. See my many shares on what money is:
{Link to content further asserting that fiduciary money is money, removed to protect economist’s identity}
You ought to spend good time reading this one:

{Link to content further asserting that fiduciary money is money, removed to protect economist’s identity}
The Mint
Quickly, on the fallacy of the $5 bill which is held, the implied interest and discount rate on Federal Reserve notes traded amongst commercial and central banks still affect the value of the bill as it is held up until the moment it is given in exchange for trade.  The coupon rate is 0%, but the normal operations of debt instruments hold true for them.
From what admittedly little I have read of your work, I agree with 99% of what you present.  It is this fine point, that Federal Reserve notes behave as debt, even when they are part of the M1 money supply, that I believe is the error which is spread throughout mainstream economics.  Of this, I have yet to be disabused by what you have presented.
Debt includes all fiduciary money.  The point is important because using debt as money works until it doesn’t, meaning the issuer of the debt defaults or is widely perceived to have defaulted, and their debts become worthless in trade.
Ivy League trained economist:
“That’s all fine, except Federal Reserve bank notes are not debt.  Decidedly, Federal Reserve bank notes are money owning to bearer negotiability and ability to extinguish contracts.
Yet, Federal Reserve notes are not credits, and thus are not debt.  Federal Reserve notes are not even evidences of ownership of contracts.
At most anyone can say is that Federal Reserve notes represent a call on future products to be made by anonymous, as yet, identified others who likely shall take them in exchange.”
The Mint
As a matter of accounting necessity, the Federal Reserve must book a liability when it issues a Federal Reserve Note which makes their notes debt by definition.  If this were not the case, why would they list it as a liability on their balance sheet?
On the contrary, the most that anyone can say about Federal Reserve notes is that they are the highest and most liquid form of debt which is traded in the US economy.  However, this does not change the fact that the essence of the Federal Reserve note is debt.
The Ivy League trained economist unexpectedly exits stage left.
Who cares?  Why is this important?  It is important because if what we believe about fiduciary money is true, most of the Western world, including the mysteriously influential Paul Krugman (who is not, by the way, the anonymous Ivy League trained economist above), somehow believes that fiduciary money is money that can be produced at will, and that the world will be better off if we simply produced more of it.
If the Krugman’s of the world get their way, labor and accumulated capital will be so poorly allocated that it could take three generations for humanity to adequately organize itself to make good use of the earth’s inexhaustible reasources.  Do you have that kind of time?
Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.
Stay Fresh!
Key Indicators for April 30, 2012
FED Target Rate:  0.14%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!