S&P Prepares to pass Judgment on US Debt, Unemployed for the long haul

8/5/2011 Portland, Oregon - Pop in your mints…

Mercifully, today we have time for a brief Mint.  It appears that the people at S&P are finally going to give the US Government a well deserved, long overdue, courtesy downgrade on their sovereign debt rating.

This will cause havoc with any investment policy, rule, code, law, etc. that relies on the US Government to maintain an untarnished reputation as the safest investment in the world.  Ironically, an S&P downgrade will probably trigger a rally in US Treasuries.  However, this phenomenon is more a testament to the ineptitude of the debt raters at S&P rather than any firming up of the nation’s finances.

But what if tax revenues began to increase?  They almost have to, even if by accident, given all of the cash that is flying out of stock, bond, and money market funds and on to the streets.  Word has it that over $66 BILLION left money market funds for parts unknown last week, mostly due to the debt ceiling debacle, which last week threatened to wreak the same havoc that a downgrade will likely cause on corporate short term cash investment policies across the globe.

For perspective, $144 BILLION ran out of money market funds the week that Lehman Bros declared bankruptcy.  But that, by most counts, was a surprise.

As food for thought, we submit this scary chart for your perusal, courtesy of the Money Game:

Unemployed for the long haul

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  For more ideas and commentary please check out The Mint at www.davidmint.com

Key Indicators for August 5, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.13
Oil Price per Barrel:  $86.88

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.93  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.56%
FED Target Rate:  0.09%  TIGHTENING?  NOT!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,663 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  -0.2%!!!  PULL OUT THE HELICOPTERS!!!
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,445  TO THE MOON!!!

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,012,200,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,226,100,000,000 YIKES!!!!!!!

Crash! The Mother of all Calls illustrated by Dave Kingman

 8/4/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

Today the Dow fell some 500 points.  Looking further, everything seemed to fall today.  We hope you have a good umbrella,  fellow taxpayer, it could be quite a storm.

Three noteworthy things seemed to have taken place in no particular order and for no apparent reason other than to unite to tank financial asset prices all over the globe, which is no small feat.  We will take them one by one.

First, overnight, the Japanese Central Bank intervened to prop up the dollar (or weaken the Yen, however you prefer to look at it).

Second, the world gave a collective thumbs down to the Eurozone’s “effort” to stabilize its bond markets.  The Euro Feds appear over matched in their currency union’s first true fidelity test.

This uncoordinated action led to the third event which we will call the “mother of all calls” on the US Dollar.  With short and long interest rates skipping around a zero as far as the eye can see, speculators have taken swings at the dollar like Dave Kingman at the 2-0 fastball.  The dollar is already sold short on an almost unimaginable scale.

Today, those speculators, ala Dave Kingman, whiffed and nearly fell over.  The only way this “mother of all calls” could be satisfied was for those short the dollar to quickly and injudiciously exit other positions.

This exiting injudiciously of  other positions is colloquially called a crash.

This crash, along with the foul smelling economic datacoming out of the US will give the Fed and Congress all the ammunition they need to launch both QE3 and any and every fiscal stimulus program they can dream up.

QE3 and fiscal stimulus on steroids will soon prove those speculators short the dollar right and the final, sordid chapter of the US Dollar’s history is about to begin!

Dave Kingman may have whiffed at the 2-0 fastball, but he has two more swings…



Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for August 4, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.19
Oil Price per Barrel:  $85.60
Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.93
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.46%
FED Target Rate:  0.12%  TIGHTENING?  NOT!
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,649 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY
MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.2%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  -0.2%!!!  PULL OUT THE HELICOPTERS!!!
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,384  TO THE MOON!!!
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,012,200,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,226,100,000,000 YIKES!!!!!!!

*See the MINT Perceived target Rate Chart.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

A Debt Deal is Struck, America further Seals Her Fate

8/2/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

After a long absence, we offer a brief Mint.  As the entire financial world knows, the US Government decided to go deeper into debt to the tune of $2.4 Trillion.  Something was mentioned about spending cuts but they are inconsequential and probably will never materialize.

America continues to march towards Her Imperial destiny, as Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning has been expounding upon recently:

“The US is now conducting war-like operations in at least six different countries. The problem, of course, is that it is ruinously expensive. In all of history no empire has been able to resist the urge to overdo it…to commit suicide – either by military or financial “overstretch.” In America’s case, it does both. 

The cost of maintaining the empire…fully loaded…is about $1.2 trillion a year. That’s the Pentagon, the Department of Homeland Security, fortified embassies – everything. Take it away, and the US budget is almost in balance. 

But Washington won’t seriously cut military spending.  Why not?  It’s the way destiny works.  First, she disarms you of your critical intelligence.  And they she shoots you in the back of the head. 

An empire continues until it drops.  It does not back up.  It does not reconsider its mission – not until it is forced to.  How is it forced to?  In the usual way…it runs out of money…”

Yes, it appears that America is intent upon losing its place as the leading private security agency on the planet, for as a practical matter, that is all that what we frequently refer to as nations are.  More on that to come.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  Don’t believe what you read about the Nebraska corn harvest, it will be just fine and as abundant as ever!

Key Indicators for August 2, 2011
Copper Price per Lb: $4.36
Oil Price per Barrel:  $93.33
Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.11
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.62%
FED Target Rate:  0.17%  TIGHTENING?  NOT!
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,660 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY
MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.2%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  -0.2%!!!  PULL OUT THE HELICOPTERS!!!
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,866  TO THE MOON!!!
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,937,200,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,260,300,000,000 YIKES!!!!!!!

*See the MINT Perceived target Rate Chart.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.