Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Huddled Masses of European Capital Fly to US Shores

7/6/2011 Portland, Oregon - Pop in your mints…
The crisis in the Eurozone is getting too big to ignore.  The gig is up, the Greek Government is in default, and Portugal and a host of private lenders, amongst them the ECB itself, are on their way there as well.  So certain is this fact that Moody’s even went on record and took the small step of downgrading Portugal’s debt. 
Naturally, the Europeans  can’t believe it.  Don’t they pay good money for these ratings?
Whatever Moody's reasons for stating the obvious, the news is having the effect of sending money fleeing across the Atlantic to US Markets any which way it can.  Commodities, Stocks, Bonds, even Real Estate are being bid up today as the European Bond Market collectively exhales capital.
For the moment, inflation on this side of the pond is only moderately accelerating as much of the cash is trapped on the Ellis Island of the US Banking system at the FED member banks.
Send me your tired, wadded up Euro capital looking for a home!
But as any banker knows, if you can’t lend the money then excess cash begins to crush your balance sheet.  This is why it is probable that the US will participate in a Eurozone bailout.  Even the threat of US intervention should get this newly immigrated capital looking for a new home shortly after arriving.
The trillion dollar question is now begging to be answered, will the US avoid default and keep the mushroom shaped debt sponge intact or will the current stalemate in Congress finally put the squeeze on the debt sponge and unleash the 500 year inflationary flood onto American shores from which there is but on escape (buy gold, silver, or anything real)?
We may know the answer sooner than we think!
Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  For more ideas and commentary please check out The Mint at www.davidmint.com

Key Indicators for July 6, 2011

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,529 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

*See the MINT Perceived target Rate Chart.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

What is so Complex about a Default? The Greek Bailout Highlights Shortcomings of Debt as Money

7/5/2011 Portland, Oregon - Pop in your mints…
Another day, another Euro.  It appears that it is still all systems go for the Greek bailout.  Athens will get another shot of hot money in mid July and the charade will keep going on.
In the old communist days, the joke went “we pretend to work and they pretend to pay us.”  In the current socialized monetary system, the joke goes “we pretend to cut back and they pretend we will pay them back.”
As our astute fellow taxpayers are already aware, the Greeks have no intention of changing their ways.  Parliamentary promises and austerity measures are of little value when 90% of the population is against them.  It is doubtful that the money lenders in Germany and France will step out of their high rises to come repossess the Parthenon.
No, they will leave that to foreign militaries as they march on Palestine.
But we are getting ahead of ourselves.  Our topic of the day is why the Euro/IMF and now, reluctantly, the private sector will be “thrashing” (which must be somewhat harsher than mere hashing) out an aid plan for Greece tomorrow in France.  From Reuters:
International banks and insurers will meet on Wednesday to thrash out a plan for the private sector to contribute to Greece's bailout effort as fears grow that the proposal will be derailed.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) lobby group said it will chair the meeting of private-sector creditors.

It needs to resolve how a deal can get past credit rating agencies without it being termed a default, and how accountants will deal with it.
A lot of work remains to be done and Wednesday's meeting will not be decisive, several sources said.

"It's a process. The new French finance minister said today it will take weeks, over the summer. It's complex. It can't be settled overnight," a French private sector source involved in the talks said.

He said there was unlikely to be a single "one-size-fits-all solution" but rather several options, given the number of different bondholders and stakeholders involved.

"The issue is so complex that we need more time," a German banking industry source added.
Of course, the issue is not complex.  The Greeks have promised more than they can deliver.  Anyone can do this for a time but if too much time passes, actions (overspending) speak louder than words (austerity measures).

Besides, for a socialist tax collecting entity such as the Greek government, austerity measures starve its customer base of revenue, lowering its own tax revenues, which in turn demand’s more austerity, etc.

For a generally unproductive country that has made the mistake of outsourcing its money printing operations like Greece, austerity is collective suicide.  Even credit rating agencies and accountants can no longer ignore this dubious state of affairs.


Greece, where the Euro pays tourist prices


Yet paradoxically, the international bankers seem intent on forcing the Greeks, against their collective will, to starve themselves.  Why?  Even in the parallel universe of our current monetary system this course of action makes absolutely no sense.
And that is precisely why it must be done.  Somehow, the banking cartel must put on the charade of solvency.  Most people, accountants and ratings agencies amongst them, have a vague understanding that saving money is equal to solvency.

How right they would be, if silver and gold were still money.  In the current insane “debt is money” socialist monetary system, savings remove the lifeblood of the currency regime.

Don’t be deceived by the Euro and IMF’s words, Greece is a lost cause.  It has problems that not even Christine Lagarde and her $550K pay package cannot solve.

But that won’t stop them from trying!  As the explanations become more and more ludicrous across the Atlantic and Mediterranean, keep your eye on The Mint’s Key Indicators, which are still pointing at raging inflation with no end in sight in dollar land.

The only protection for savings is anything real that is not a dollar (or a promise to pay a dollar in the future, such as dollar denominated bonds).  How is that for investing made simple?  So many options!

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  For more ideas and commentary please check out The Mint at www.davidmint.com
Key Indicators for July 5, 2011
Copper Price per Lb: $4.30
Oil Price per Barrel:  $96.83 A FAILURE TO INFLATE, WILL TREND LOWER
Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.80   MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  3.14% WITH THE FED OUT, THE SKY’S THE LIMIT
FED Target Rate:  0.07%  JAPAN HERE WE COME!
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,516 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

*See the MINT Perceived target Rate Chart.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

See More of The Mint

For those unaware, we have more information and posts at The Mint's playland at www.davidmint.com.  Thank you for following us!  More to come.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

A US Default? Into the Great Unknown

6/29/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…
Much has happened in the financial markets in this past week, and much will happen in the coming weeks.  But perhaps what is most notable is what has not happened.
Namely, the US Congress has not raised its self imposed credit card limit.  For an entity that is already $14.3 Trillion in debt ($4 Trillion of which reportedly comes due in the next 12 months) with no realistic plan to pay for it, this is suicide.  What are they thinking?
The two parties are in agreement one count, they need to save $2 Trillion dollars over 10 years.  Why this sum has been identified as the cure for what ails the country's finances is anybody’s guess.  Unfortunately, but not surprisingly, there is no agreement as to how to get there.
Where will they find $2 Trillion?  Tax the rich, screams Obama, repeating the eternal populist sentiment.  Stop spending, say the Republicans, using the circumstances to make a push for “limited government.”
Editors Note:  There is no hope for limited government with the current two party system in place, therefore the Republican’s stance is entirely a façade.
The President has taken the extraordinary step of asking Congress not to recess over the Fourth of July, as is their custom, calling their lack of agreement akin to his daughters not completing their homework.  While the President makes a quaint metaphor, we believe that Obama’s daughter’s homework is probably more challenging than Congress’s task of balancing the budget.

Obama tells the GOP to get their "homework" done
 Balancing a budget is simple.  It just takes courage.  It seems that courage is in short supply in Washington DC these days.
Without internal fortitude to press the Americans along, a little external pressure is beginning to be applied.  First, the Treasury’s latest 7 year bond auction did not go as well as planned as investors demanded 2.43% to hold US paper for a sabbath cycle.  Without the FED at the table, it is hard to imagine how it could have gone well.  Bond Market participants are beginning to wring their hands.
Then comes word that the IMF is beginning to apply pressure, eloquently reminding the Americans of what they should do and why they should do it.  It is worth noting that the IMF appears to be the last to know about such things so we will excuse their apparent surprise at the lack of inaction (they are most likely not informed MINT readers like yourself):
“…the federal debt ceiling should be raised expeditiously to avoid a severe shock to the economy and world financial markets,"
Yeah, tell us something we don't know.  And then, true to their holier than thou, infallible status, they give the Americans advice on how to do it:
"We see early political agreement on a comprehensive medium-term consolidation plan based on realistic macroeconomic assumptions as a cornerstone of a credible and cyclically appropriate fiscal adjustment strategy,"
Great!  Thanks for the incomprehensible and totally impractical advice.  This type of drivel simply solidifies our opinion that the IMF is a worthless institution and could be categorically ignored if it were not so insistent upon meddling in financial matters on a global basis.
Meanwhile, we are getting to see first hand what happens to a country that gives up control over its currency and then listens to the IMF for advice and is forced to take a loan from them.  Greece, is giving the world a glimpse at how popular austerity is with the masses.


The scene that was carried out in the Middle East in the Spring is set to take place in Europe and England over the summer months.


How long until it crosses the Atlantic?


Another event that may occur as interested parties begin to reduce exposure to US Treasury debt is a liquidity crunch that will start in early July.  Apart from the debt ceiling uncertainty, the Dodd-Frank financial reform rules are set to begin to do their damage to the financial system on July 15th.  

If they do not forestall these rules as many banks are begging them to do, the US and global economy will take their first tender steps into the great unknown, a world without political or real capital to act a a backstop for failures.


It will be dangerous and exciting.  And, just like a fireworks show, will be best enjoyed from a safe distance.  Keep your money close at hand, meaning out of banks and preferably in precious metals or anything tangible, and enjoy the show!
Stay Fresh!
P.S.  Please check out our latest 72 Hour Call at www.davidmint.com
Key Indicators for Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Copper Price per Lb: $4.20
Oil Price per Barrel:  $94.93 A FAILURE TO INFLATE, WILL TREND LOWER
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,511 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

*See the MINT Perceived target Rate Chart.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Waiting for a Default, the Search for Knowledge, Final Prices, and What do Schlitz and the US Dollar have in Common?

6/22/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

We search for answers, yet the questions are trumping them right now. This phenomenon is inherent to human existence. People are always chasing after knowledge. In the Bible, the book of Daniel speaks of our times when the Angel tells Daniel in his vision:

“But you, O Daniel, shut up the words, and seal the book, even to the time of the end: many shall run to and fro, and knowledge shall be increased.”

Daniel 12:4, King James Version

A little bit of knowledge sparks a thirst for more knowledge, which, once quenched, sparks an even greater thirst for knowledge. Like Carmex, which soothes one’s chapped lips for a time only to dry them out again, which appears to create a perpetual “need” for to the product, knowledge provides answers and understanding which lead the enquirer to even more questions, and the cycle repeats itself.

The phenomenon expresses itself in markets in the form of a search for a “final price”. In a free, unfettered marketplace, this price, in money terms, represents all that is known about the value of the good that is being exchanged for money at that point in time. However, this “final price” is in and of itself a new data point to be considered, as is the exchange of goods which it represents. This changing data necessarily creates a new “final price” which, by definition, takes into account all factors know about the value of the good and so on.

Ever since we decided to eat the fruit of the tree of the knowledge of good and evil, the chase for knowledge has continued and will continue until Jesus returns.

But what does this have to do with the US Dollar, let alone Beer?

We are glad you asked as we were getting a bit side-tracked. Our personal search for knowledge has brought us to the most recent of the endless questions that need to be answered:

When will Central Bank Currency Regimes and Sovereign Governments admit they are bankrupt and be allowed to default?

This is an URGENT and very important question as the entire financial world cannot progress until this question has been answered.

To be clear, most western governments and their Central Bank run currency regimes are now technically in default. They have been ever since they began to “solve” liquidity problems via money printing or “Quantitative Easing” (QE for short).

The acts of Quantitative Easing, which have been embarked upon by the US, Euro, and Japanese Central Banks is only necessary when the faith based currency regime in question has failed. The necessity to print money which is not demanded by the market nor provided at market prices provides concrete proof that people are no longer willing to further enslave themselves by incurring additional debt.

As we have explained in this space before, debt is the lifeblood of the currency regime. In these mindless confiscatory monetary systems where the only way to create money is to coax someone else into incurring debt, shrinking debt is the equivalent of someone pushing the currency regime’s self destruct button.

But instead of recognizing this fact for what it was, a failure of the system, much of western civilization continues in willful denial. Soon, however, everyone will be rushing for the exits.



But we promised you a beer, fellow taxpayer, so crack yourself a cold one (on your own dime, of course, this is, after all, a free newsletter) and see if you tell us what the Federal Reserve Notes that we currently use as money and Schlitz Beer have in common?

What do Schlitz and the Federal Reserve Note have in Common?
Need a hint? Think quality, or lack thereof.

Give up? Here are the answers, as always, we invite inquiring fellow taxpayers to add to this list by commenting below.

First, both Federal Reserve Notes and Schlitz were once the gold standards of their product class (currency and beer, respectively). Federal Reserve Notes took the place of US Dollars in 1913 and maintained the US Dollar’s tradition of quality and enjoyed increased market share until finally overtaking the British Pound Sterling as the world’s currency of choice. In the beer industry, Schlitz rose to overtake rival Pabst as the most popular beer in the world in 1902.

In the 1970s, the Schlitz brewing process was changed to make use of high temperature fermentation in order to further speed production. This change and subsequent changes in the formula had disastrous results which came to a head in 1982. On the US Dollar front, then President Richard Nixon began to tinker with the US Dollar formula in the 70s, namely making the US Dollar no longer convertible into gold. This watering down of the dollar supply had disastrous effects which also came to a head in the early 1980’s.

Both Schlitz and the US Dollar then continued to generally decline in status for close to 30 years.

In 2008, however, the old Schlitz formula was discovered and has been revived by Stroh’s Brewing Company to give new life to an old beer that everyone had left for dead.

Circa 2011, the US Dollar is still yearning to return to the “gold convertibility” formula that made it so insanely popular for the first half of the twentieth century.

Is there anyone who can find it?

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S. If you enjoy or at least otlerate The Mint, please share us with your family, friends, and colleagues.

Key Indicators for Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.10
Oil Price per Barrel: $95.06 A FAILURE TO INFLATE

Corn Price per Bushel: $6.07 MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond: 2.99%
FED Target Rate: 0.09% FED IN PERMANENT DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce: $1,549 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*: 2.25%
Unemployment Rate: 9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI): 0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,163
M1 Monetary Base: $1,921,900,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base: $9,084,400,000,000 YIKES!!!

*See MINT Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog. This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy. This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.