Tuesday, July 5, 2011

See More of The Mint

For those unaware, we have more information and posts at The Mint's playland at www.davidmint.com.  Thank you for following us!  More to come.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

A US Default? Into the Great Unknown

6/29/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…
Much has happened in the financial markets in this past week, and much will happen in the coming weeks.  But perhaps what is most notable is what has not happened.
Namely, the US Congress has not raised its self imposed credit card limit.  For an entity that is already $14.3 Trillion in debt ($4 Trillion of which reportedly comes due in the next 12 months) with no realistic plan to pay for it, this is suicide.  What are they thinking?
The two parties are in agreement one count, they need to save $2 Trillion dollars over 10 years.  Why this sum has been identified as the cure for what ails the country's finances is anybody’s guess.  Unfortunately, but not surprisingly, there is no agreement as to how to get there.
Where will they find $2 Trillion?  Tax the rich, screams Obama, repeating the eternal populist sentiment.  Stop spending, say the Republicans, using the circumstances to make a push for “limited government.”
Editors Note:  There is no hope for limited government with the current two party system in place, therefore the Republican’s stance is entirely a façade.
The President has taken the extraordinary step of asking Congress not to recess over the Fourth of July, as is their custom, calling their lack of agreement akin to his daughters not completing their homework.  While the President makes a quaint metaphor, we believe that Obama’s daughter’s homework is probably more challenging than Congress’s task of balancing the budget.

Obama tells the GOP to get their "homework" done
 Balancing a budget is simple.  It just takes courage.  It seems that courage is in short supply in Washington DC these days.
Without internal fortitude to press the Americans along, a little external pressure is beginning to be applied.  First, the Treasury’s latest 7 year bond auction did not go as well as planned as investors demanded 2.43% to hold US paper for a sabbath cycle.  Without the FED at the table, it is hard to imagine how it could have gone well.  Bond Market participants are beginning to wring their hands.
Then comes word that the IMF is beginning to apply pressure, eloquently reminding the Americans of what they should do and why they should do it.  It is worth noting that the IMF appears to be the last to know about such things so we will excuse their apparent surprise at the lack of inaction (they are most likely not informed MINT readers like yourself):
“…the federal debt ceiling should be raised expeditiously to avoid a severe shock to the economy and world financial markets,"
Yeah, tell us something we don't know.  And then, true to their holier than thou, infallible status, they give the Americans advice on how to do it:
"We see early political agreement on a comprehensive medium-term consolidation plan based on realistic macroeconomic assumptions as a cornerstone of a credible and cyclically appropriate fiscal adjustment strategy,"
Great!  Thanks for the incomprehensible and totally impractical advice.  This type of drivel simply solidifies our opinion that the IMF is a worthless institution and could be categorically ignored if it were not so insistent upon meddling in financial matters on a global basis.
Meanwhile, we are getting to see first hand what happens to a country that gives up control over its currency and then listens to the IMF for advice and is forced to take a loan from them.  Greece, is giving the world a glimpse at how popular austerity is with the masses.


The scene that was carried out in the Middle East in the Spring is set to take place in Europe and England over the summer months.


How long until it crosses the Atlantic?


Another event that may occur as interested parties begin to reduce exposure to US Treasury debt is a liquidity crunch that will start in early July.  Apart from the debt ceiling uncertainty, the Dodd-Frank financial reform rules are set to begin to do their damage to the financial system on July 15th.  

If they do not forestall these rules as many banks are begging them to do, the US and global economy will take their first tender steps into the great unknown, a world without political or real capital to act a a backstop for failures.


It will be dangerous and exciting.  And, just like a fireworks show, will be best enjoyed from a safe distance.  Keep your money close at hand, meaning out of banks and preferably in precious metals or anything tangible, and enjoy the show!
Stay Fresh!
P.S.  Please check out our latest 72 Hour Call at www.davidmint.com
Key Indicators for Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Copper Price per Lb: $4.20
Oil Price per Barrel:  $94.93 A FAILURE TO INFLATE, WILL TREND LOWER
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,511 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

*See the MINT Perceived target Rate Chart.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Waiting for a Default, the Search for Knowledge, Final Prices, and What do Schlitz and the US Dollar have in Common?

6/22/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

We search for answers, yet the questions are trumping them right now. This phenomenon is inherent to human existence. People are always chasing after knowledge. In the Bible, the book of Daniel speaks of our times when the Angel tells Daniel in his vision:

“But you, O Daniel, shut up the words, and seal the book, even to the time of the end: many shall run to and fro, and knowledge shall be increased.”

Daniel 12:4, King James Version

A little bit of knowledge sparks a thirst for more knowledge, which, once quenched, sparks an even greater thirst for knowledge. Like Carmex, which soothes one’s chapped lips for a time only to dry them out again, which appears to create a perpetual “need” for to the product, knowledge provides answers and understanding which lead the enquirer to even more questions, and the cycle repeats itself.

The phenomenon expresses itself in markets in the form of a search for a “final price”. In a free, unfettered marketplace, this price, in money terms, represents all that is known about the value of the good that is being exchanged for money at that point in time. However, this “final price” is in and of itself a new data point to be considered, as is the exchange of goods which it represents. This changing data necessarily creates a new “final price” which, by definition, takes into account all factors know about the value of the good and so on.

Ever since we decided to eat the fruit of the tree of the knowledge of good and evil, the chase for knowledge has continued and will continue until Jesus returns.

But what does this have to do with the US Dollar, let alone Beer?

We are glad you asked as we were getting a bit side-tracked. Our personal search for knowledge has brought us to the most recent of the endless questions that need to be answered:

When will Central Bank Currency Regimes and Sovereign Governments admit they are bankrupt and be allowed to default?

This is an URGENT and very important question as the entire financial world cannot progress until this question has been answered.

To be clear, most western governments and their Central Bank run currency regimes are now technically in default. They have been ever since they began to “solve” liquidity problems via money printing or “Quantitative Easing” (QE for short).

The acts of Quantitative Easing, which have been embarked upon by the US, Euro, and Japanese Central Banks is only necessary when the faith based currency regime in question has failed. The necessity to print money which is not demanded by the market nor provided at market prices provides concrete proof that people are no longer willing to further enslave themselves by incurring additional debt.

As we have explained in this space before, debt is the lifeblood of the currency regime. In these mindless confiscatory monetary systems where the only way to create money is to coax someone else into incurring debt, shrinking debt is the equivalent of someone pushing the currency regime’s self destruct button.

But instead of recognizing this fact for what it was, a failure of the system, much of western civilization continues in willful denial. Soon, however, everyone will be rushing for the exits.



But we promised you a beer, fellow taxpayer, so crack yourself a cold one (on your own dime, of course, this is, after all, a free newsletter) and see if you tell us what the Federal Reserve Notes that we currently use as money and Schlitz Beer have in common?

What do Schlitz and the Federal Reserve Note have in Common?
Need a hint? Think quality, or lack thereof.

Give up? Here are the answers, as always, we invite inquiring fellow taxpayers to add to this list by commenting below.

First, both Federal Reserve Notes and Schlitz were once the gold standards of their product class (currency and beer, respectively). Federal Reserve Notes took the place of US Dollars in 1913 and maintained the US Dollar’s tradition of quality and enjoyed increased market share until finally overtaking the British Pound Sterling as the world’s currency of choice. In the beer industry, Schlitz rose to overtake rival Pabst as the most popular beer in the world in 1902.

In the 1970s, the Schlitz brewing process was changed to make use of high temperature fermentation in order to further speed production. This change and subsequent changes in the formula had disastrous results which came to a head in 1982. On the US Dollar front, then President Richard Nixon began to tinker with the US Dollar formula in the 70s, namely making the US Dollar no longer convertible into gold. This watering down of the dollar supply had disastrous effects which also came to a head in the early 1980’s.

Both Schlitz and the US Dollar then continued to generally decline in status for close to 30 years.

In 2008, however, the old Schlitz formula was discovered and has been revived by Stroh’s Brewing Company to give new life to an old beer that everyone had left for dead.

Circa 2011, the US Dollar is still yearning to return to the “gold convertibility” formula that made it so insanely popular for the first half of the twentieth century.

Is there anyone who can find it?

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S. If you enjoy or at least otlerate The Mint, please share us with your family, friends, and colleagues.

Key Indicators for Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.10
Oil Price per Barrel: $95.06 A FAILURE TO INFLATE

Corn Price per Bushel: $6.07 MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond: 2.99%
FED Target Rate: 0.09% FED IN PERMANENT DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce: $1,549 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*: 2.25%
Unemployment Rate: 9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI): 0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,163
M1 Monetary Base: $1,921,900,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base: $9,084,400,000,000 YIKES!!!

*See MINT Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog. This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy. This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Inflation set to Bloom, Bernanke Resorts to Desperate Pleas to Raise the Debt Ceiling

6/14/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…
The Rose Festival has dominated the city’s waterfront park for the past two weeks.  Carnival rides have been up since Memorial Day weekend and an assortment of ships from the US and Canadian Navy (affectionately known as the “Canavy”) arrived late last week.  After no fewer than four parades, the annual Dragon Boat Races rounded out the festivities. 
The Festival usually marks the beginning of summer, which is defined as the absence of rain for four delightful months, here in Portland.  While the rain seems to have done its part, the weather remains colder than one would expect.
This year was the first year that anyone can remember the roses not being in full bloom during most of the festival.  An uncharacteristically cold spring has caused many of the plants to hold back here from showing off their blooms.  When they do finally bloom, it tends to happen quickly and spectacularly. 
For some reason the plight of the roses has us worrying about inflation.  We have been certain that inflation is on the horizon for some time now, and while there has been an uncomfortable rise in food and gasoline prices, it is hardly the degree of inflation that we had been anticipating.
Are we early or just plain wrong about inflation?  The question is troubling.  What is certain is that many of the things that we have speculated would happen are coming to pass.  Most significantly, the US Government appears to be approaching a moment of truth regarding its dire finances.  The simple question of whether or not to raise the debt ceiling has opened a Pandora’s box of questions about the nation's spending priorities.
Now the 2012 election cycle is beginning and US lawmakers have rushed out the door to the campaign trail and have left Pandora’s box wide open on the Capitol floor with its questions racing about the room:
Should we cut entitlements?
Enact more economic stimulus?
Will the Government really go bankrupt on August 2nd?
Is the activity on Twitter accounts really open to the public?
With the national political circus about to go into full swing, any hope of a serious discussion about a realistic budget or debt ceiling is gone.  What we are now left with are desperate pleas for action from none other than Ben Bernanke, the ace lobbyist for the nation’s largest banks. 
Today’s plea was made by Bernanke at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s appropriately titled annual conference: “The Debt Ceiling, Fiscal Plans, and Market Jitters, Where Do We Go From Here?
Mr. Bernanke, in his classic, diplomatic style, told the Republican leadership in attendance that he appreciated what they were trying to do in trying to get the nation to live within its means, but that their use of the debt ceiling as a hostage was not an appropriate tool for the job.  Instead, he advocates deficit reduction goals which trigger automatic cuts if they are not met.
Leading Lobbyist for the Banking Sector
 The United States is one of the few countries with a congressionally mandated debt ceiling.  Contrary to Mr. Bernanke’s belief (which we must say defies logic), the debt ceiling is the perfect tool to use if a lawmaker wants to put an end to out of control spending but doesn’t have the time to gain consensus for a reasonable budget plan.  It is the ultimate way to “trigger automatic cuts.”
Perceptive readers will note that what Mr. Bernanke’s proposes is the same fiscal spending control model that has worked spectacularly in Europe. Just ask the Greeks!
Still, the question remains, where is the inflation?  Our simple analysis led us to believe that under current circumstances the FED would print money to give both to its member banks and to the US Treasury until things either got better or the dollar was completely worthless in exchange for goods.  Our money is on the latter passing before the former.
It now appears that the US government has temporarily thrown a wrench in those plans.
But this should come as no surprise.  As Henry Hazlitt so eloquently explains in his book Economics in One Lesson, government intervention in the economy always fails to achieve its desired ends and almost uncannily brings about results contrary to those that the government intended.
Would it not make sense, then, that the current efforts to produce price inflation turn out to be dramatic failures as well?
Then, long after the government has abandoned its inflationary policies, a tidal wave of cash will appear quickly and spectacularly, not unlike the rose blooms in Portland this year.   
This inflation will occur when the US Government, whether on its own or under compulsion from the bond markets, turns its clumsy machinations towards austerity.  In other words, when it least wants or expects it.
Stay Fresh!
P.S.  Please check out our latest 72 Hour Call at www.davidmint.com
Key Indicators for Tuesday, June 14, 2011

*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Economy to suffer Rolling Blackouts, A Flare up in Palestine, Does the FED have an Expiration Date?

6/7/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…
Summer has arrived in Portland.  We had hoped that it would arrive months ago but as with 41% of our predictions here at The Mint, we were early, which is a polite way to say that we were wrong.
In the financial markets, it continues to rain.  The authorities have done everything in their power to stop the effects of the rain, hoping to simply ride it out.  They are now exhausted and the ominous prospect of rising flood waters to accompany the constant drizzle adds to their misery.
The storm began innocently enough and that was the problem.  Despite the dark clouds forming on the horizon, most people thought that they simply needed to stay indoors for a while, maybe move the patio furniture inside, and wait it out. 
As it turns out, loading up the wagon and moving to higher ground is the only thing that can save them.  In a practical sense, this means paying off debts and moving assets into precious metals or anything else real.  It means cutting ties with any and all counter-parties because the probability of default is increasing and can strike without warning.
This financial storm did not necessarily require the divine insight afforded Noah in his day but to adequately prepare for it one needed to at least have in mind the possibility that this storm was no ordinary storm.
Yes, fellow taxpayer, the world economy is not in a recession or a depression (unless you are trying to describe a certain level of misery and not an economic phenomenon).  The economy is in the process of being completely retooled.  Bill Bonner at the Daily Reckoning calls it the "Great Correction."  We do not have a name for it here at The Mint but Mr. Bonner's term seems a bit mild to us.
Now that the FED's firepower and credibility are completely expended, the economy is set to experience something akin to random "rolling blackouts."  As the cash and credit that flowed steadily downstream for the past 50 plus years begins to dry up, a wall of water in the form of stimulus and monetary accommodation is barreling down the canyon and is literally destroying everything in its path and is PERMANENTLY changing the river's channel.
Beyond the wall of water is a dry riverbed.  This has been confirmed as the FED's credibility is shot.  Even if they could continue sending what water is left down the canyon it wouldn't even come close to filling the new channel or be capable of forming anything that resembles the river that once was.
It is difficult to imagine a more desperate state of affairs.  This is one of the miracles of central planning, that it always and in every sense is a failure for everyone.  In some rare cases the planners benefit but for the most part, in the long run, even they are poorer for their efforts.
So what awaits the economy are unpredictable rolling blackouts as the lack of water causes random and unexpected defaults and quasi-defaults to occur until all participants learn to not trust each other.  Oddly enough, only then will something resembling organic growth begin anew.
An interesting idea was brought to our attention yesterday.  The idea is that the FED's charter as America's Central Bank is set to end on December 21, 2012, which nicely coincides with the final date on the Mayan Calendar.  We then further investigated and saw that someone with the Youtube user name "Man of Truth" predicted that the FED would be bankrupt in December of 2012 back in 2009.
While back in 2009 the Man of Truth may have sounded like a lunatic, circa 2011 his prediction seems not only possible but highly likely.  While the December 2012 date is arbitrary, all of this taken together with the fact that many people believe the Mayan Prophecy may be enough to disrupt life as we know it for an extended period of time.

Courtesy of http://bizarrocomics.com/
 While we at the Mint do not personally believe in the Mayan Prophecy or the FED for that matter, we have a feeling that enough people do believe to warrant being prepared for an extended period of random rolling economic blackouts which will probably begin early in 2012, making the best time to prepare for them, well, now.
How to prepare?  First and foremost, accept Jesus Christ as your personal savior.  Then, not matter what happens, you have absolutely nothing to fear, not even death. 
Second, financially act as if a flash flood is coming down the canyon and get whatever you think you may need to ride out the blackout period close at hand because the probability of obtaining it later is diminishing with each passing day.
Third, help others to do likewise.  In the process of helping others, you will literally be laying the foundation for the bright future that awaits you.
Piece of cake, right?
Meanwhile, the security situation in Palestine the Middle East continue to deteriorate.  Will it be enough to distract the West from its own perilous situation?
Stay Fresh!
P.S.  Please check out our latest 72 Hour Call at www.davidmint.com
Key Indicators for Wednesday, June 7th, 2011
FED Target Rate:  0.10% FED IN DESPERATION MODE!!!!
MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25% INFLATION HERE WE COME!!!!
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%  ITS NOT WORKING

*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.