NATO Take Over in Libya? Déjà Vu in Syria, the FED to lose an Inflation Hawk in October – Will the Dollar still exist?

3/28/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

Something big is definitely afoot.  There is just too much chaos erupting at once for there to be a logical explanation.  Maybe the Mayans where right to stop their calendar at 2012, if the current pace of change continues, the world we grew up in will be no more, and that may not be such a bad thing.

Change is good, it is healthy, but it is rarely pleasant.  Just ask Mubarak, Ghadaffi, and now al-Assad.  Yes, like a broken record, it appears that Syria is about to join the list of Middle Eastern  "Nations" (we use the imperialist term loosely) to experience a regime change.  Apparently the protestors want something known as "Democracy," which we loosely define here at The Mint as the ability to vote entitlements for oneself at the expense of others.  Somebody should warn the Syrians to keep the receipt along with their change.

Whether they want Democracy or not, the mere mention should be enough reason for the US to entangle itself militarily at some point.  Now that the President of the Americans can unilaterally decide to engage the nation in open ended warfare (let's call the US role in Libya what it really is), we should probably expect more of it.

But doesn't the President of the US need authorization from the People to engage in such nonsense?  Four short years ago, two congressmen with aspirations of occupying the nation's Executive role seemed to think so:

How things change once one is in power!

President Obama seemed to forget that He is not in Illinois, and the US Military is not the Chicago Police Department.  To launch a military strike, there is a certain protocol to be followed.  He, um, didn't follow it. 

The situation in Libya gets more complex by the day.  Perhaps realizing that He "forgot" to ask for permission to launch military exercises against a country that does not pose a direct threat to anyone but themselves, the President was all to eager to pass off the hot potato to NATO.  Once NATO is in command, the US is simply "assisting its allies."  Problem solved, right?  Not so fast.  Turkey is a member of NATO, and they are not exactly on board with the mission.  Ditto for Germany, who called back two of their naval vessels from a NATO exercise in the Mediterranean.

So the potato is now stuck being passed from the US, to France, to Britain, and so on until they can get the other members to play along.  Will Obama's oversight be the end of NATO?  With so much changing, anything is possible.

Against this backdrop, Thomas Hoenig, one of the few FED Heads who seemed genuinely concerned about inflation and protecting the value of the dollar, will be retiring in October.  Apparently the man has hit the FED's mandatory retirement age.  Who will replace him?  It will probably be another stuffy academic like William Dudley, who was deservedly heckled at a recent speech in Queens for citing the price of the IPad2 as proof that there was no inflation.

With another defender of the dollar out of the picture, one has to wonder if the dollar as we know it will even exist in October.  Like a man wearing his bathrobe to work on a Casual Friday*, the FED has lost all restraint.  As we have said in this space before, the FED has no choice but to mercilessly devalue the dollar and hope for the best.  In our Casual Friday metaphor, the dollar is moments away from being fired as the world's reserve currency.  If there was ever a time or a reason to sell dollars and buy, well, anything tangible, it is upon us.

As if to underscore our point, Silver, one of our favorite tangible things, is up 12.5% in the past month alone.

March Madness, Indeed!

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email:  davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  If you enjoy or at least tolerate The Mint please share us with your friends, family, and associates!

*(for non-Americans, this is a term which refers to a company relaxing its normal dress code on Fridays so that employees can wear more comfortable attire, i.e. not three piece suits.)

Key Indicators for Friday, March 28th, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.36
Oil Price per Barrel:  $105.14
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  3.33%
FED Target Rate:  0.13%

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,430

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  4.25%
Unemployment Rate:  8.9%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,221
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,843,700,000,000
M2 Monetary Base:  $8,984,700,000,000

*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

Obama and US Allies Picking a fight in North Africa, The FED puts the Brakes on BofA’s attempt to stimulate its Shareholders

3/24/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

If you turn on the news, it appears that the entire world order is about to fall apart.  Yet somehow, in the face of what is arguably the greatest uncertainty the world has faced in the past 67 years, stock and bond markets remain largely unaffected.  Sure, oil, gold, the Yen, and even US Treasury Bonds have gone up in price, but the increase has not been nearly as dramatic as one would expect given everything that has happened in 2011.

What gives?  Are the revolutions in the Middle East, the three-fold catastrophes in Japan, and today's bombing in Jerusalem somehow already "priced" into the market? 

The market did not even seem phased by the seemingly unilateral decision by President Obama to rally his buddies across the pond to bomb Muammar Ghadafi's forces in Libya.   

In the current order of things, there is always a reason to go to war.  Obama has chosen the reasoning of protecting the Libyan people from aggression at the hands of their own government.  The Americans should be so lucky!

No, the elixir that is currently holding these markets together is now being brewed in ever increasing quatities by the G7 Central Bankers and being served under the brand name "QE" in the US.  Happy hour has been extended and the FED member banks are in no hurry to go home.

Back to Libya, where the French are now getting NATO involved, why is the US intervening on behalf of the rebels?  Is the nation state model of government being disregarded by the President?  At least in the case of Iraq and Afghanistan, the reasoning was centered around a direct threat, albeit remote, bordering on non-existent, to the American people.

Instead, the President has committed the nation to $800 million in up front costs and  $100 million per week of ongoing maintenance costs ($5.2 Billion per year, but who is counting) set up a "No-fly zone" to defend the Libyan people from their own government.  In the increasingly interconnected world that we live in, there is no doubt some appeal that could be made in the name of US national security for such nonsense but up until now, we have not heard it.

This action certainly takes Washington's role as policeman of the world to another level.  The best part is that every dollar spent on this misguided attempt at world improvement will go directly onto the national credit card!

Maybe Marc Faber was right and the US is quietly stepping into a world war in order to distract the American public from the government's failed economic policies.  This logic makes more sense than the advent of a sudden burning desire to defend the Libyan public that the media is currently selling.

It is quickly becoming evident that the recovery being trumpeted is a sham.  Nothing has changed.  The FED continues to throw increasing amounts of money at the system that cannot seem to throw back any real economic growth.  But what else can they do?

They are like a man throwing confetti to a crowd.  Those closest to him (the FED member banks, in this metaphor) are bound to receive a lot, maybe they are covered knee deep in the stuff, while those who are farther back in the crowd are lucky if the wind blows any their way.

Even being so close to the monetary spigot does not seem to be helping some of them.  Word came yesterday that the FED rejected Bank of America's request to increase dividend payments.  The black hole of worthless debt held by Bank of America is so big that only $0.04 of every $8.35 in revenue per share was able to escape to be paid out to shareholders in the form of dividends last year.

Actual Image of BofA Balance Sheet Destroying Capital at a rate of 1% per year

Poor BofA, one bad "strategic" acquisition (they bought the infamous Countrywide Financial in 2008 for what they thought was a steal, putting them in the same league as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in terms of mortgages held) has thrown the giant to the canvas.  Even under the most favorable conditions in terms of short term interest rates, BofA has been unable to turn a profit and continues to cannibalize itself. 

Ditto for many of the "profitable" FED member banks, where the difference between a good loan and bad loan can no longer be distinguished.  Most are a simple regulation change away from being declared insolvent.  Never has the line between profitability and bankruptcy been so thin.  Once the US Treasury market blows up, these same banks will become both insolvent and completely illiquid.

It should now be clear why the FED will run the printing presses until the US Dollar returns to its intrinsic value of the paper it is printed on.  Neither the large banks nor the government can afford to let nature take its course in the US Treasury Market.  And now the government is throwing the apparent trump card of a large scale war into the mix.

Don't worry, nature will take its course anyway.  Armageddon here we come!

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email:  davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  If you enjoy or at least tolerate The Mint please share us with your friends, family, and associates!

Key Indicators for Thursday, March 24th, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.43
Oil Price per Barrel:  $105.39
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  3.35%
FED Target Rate:  0.14%

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,439

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  4.25%
Unemployment Rate:  8.9%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,086
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,843,500,000,000
M2 Monetary Base:  $8,974,000,000,000

*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

G7 Fails to Stem Yen’s Rise, The Futility of Market Intervention, Portuguese Government Next to Collapse

3/22/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

We left off Friday with the G7 Central Bankers reaching deep into their pockets and dumping all of the Yen they had, and then some that they didn't have, in an effort to stem the rise of the Japanese currency.  At first, it appeared to work.  On the surface they were able to avoid a catastrophe in the JGB (Japanese Bond), Nikkei, and US Dollar markets.  But what do you know?  On Monday, the Yen continued to rise as if nothing had happened before finding a trading range near the levels at which the G7 had intervened.

Is this seemingly unrelated crisis in Japan the Waterloo for the US Dollar in the currency wars?  That is our current speculation here at The Mint.

In a world not riddled with government debt and baseless currencies with which to pay them, a disaster of this magnitude in Japan would cause the value of currency on the Isle of Japan to rise and the value of debt obligations to fall.  This is simple logic.  When a disaster strikes, you need things now, not promises of things 3 months to 30 years in the future.  The word currency cleverly captures this idea of having something "currently" and not later.  It is no mystery that it should become dearer as anxiety increases.

In a world that is awash in debt and baseless currency, as our world is, anything can happen.  Anything, as long as it is limited to setting the current price of government debt holdings and competing baseless currencies against one another.  The current flavor of "anything happening" is that, defying all logic, the Japanese Yen seems to have gradually fallen from the speculative buying that bid it to record levels in the aftermath of the threefold disasters which befell northeastern Japan.

Upon further review, "gradually fallen" may not be an accurate description of the price action in the Yen:

Japanese and G7 Central Bankers try to Push the Yen off a Cliff!

As you can see in the above chart, it looks more and more like the Japanese and G7 Central Bankers threw the Yen off of a cliff.  Unfortunately for them, it appears that the Yen has wings and that even the combined efforts of the mightiest Central Banks on the planet cannot stop this rally.

Bad news for the dollar.

Market intervention is, in the long run, futile.  In the short term, however, it can be very profitable.  Just ask Goldman Sachs!

Here is a tip, if you see a market that is being massively intervened in, bet against the intervention.  Following this logic, one could now buy the Yen (but not JGBs, mind you!) without fear.  Free people and the free markets which represent them will always overcome any attempt by a minority of governments and Central Bankers to work against them.  Supply and Demand always prevail in economics.  The only thing that intervention does is to slow the process.

If you understand the supply and demand dynamics of a market and see that demand is overwhelming supply, go for it.  Look at the interventionists as your allies as they continue to hit the pause button so that you can increase your positions.  All they (the interventionists) do is send false signals which end up further restricting supply, which simply makes the reasons for going long all that more compelling.  Just don't go into debt to do it!  Market intervention is futile, and it is a shame that so much of it is taxpayer sponsored.

Before we sign off we cast our weary eyes across the pond and see that the Portuguese are offering the world another example of fiscal democracy at work.  In a scene being played out in democratically elected chambers all over the world, the majority is refusing to give up the government subsidies, entitlements, and boondoggles that they have slowly voted into existence over the years, even in the face of national bankruptcy. 

Voting things into existence and actually working for them are two very different things.  Voting is easy, working is not.  This is the great tragedy of democracy in fiscal matters.

There is an escape hatch from all of this madness, and, in the US, it is surprisingly easy to find and  open.  Hold wealth in silver or gold (click here and Register at APMEX.com Today!), pop some popcorn, and sit back and watch the political theater unfold.  Knowing that your wealth is safe, you may even get a chuckle or two as the wheels come off the bus of fiscal and monetary policy as we know it!

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email:  davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  If you enjoy or at least tolerate The Mint please share us with your friends, family, and associates!

Key Indicators for Tuesday, March 22nd, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.30
Oil Price per Barrel:  $102.23
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  3.32%
FED Target Rate:  0.14%

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,427

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  4.25%
Unemployment Rate:  8.9%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,037
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,843,500,000,000
M2 Monetary Base:  $8,974,000,000,000

*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

G7 Meet to Stop Yen’s Dramatic Rise and the BLS Calls BS on its Broad CPI Measure

3/18/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

The G7 Central Bankers have called an emergency meeting to "do something" about the "skyrocketing Japanese Yen."  This meeting is simply their latest attempt to combat reality.  The reality of the situation in Japan is that they are dealing with a catastrophe.  When one is dealing with a catastrophe, the next prudent step, after all of the immediate crises have been contained, is to take stock of the situation.  By taking stock, we mean that one takes note of what was lost and, more importantly, what one will need in order to restore things to an acceptable level of comfort.

Comforts cost money.  In Japan, to replace these comforts the average person needs Yen.  They will either get this Yen by making a claim with their insurance company or selling assets to raise cash.  With damages of nearly $15 Trillion Yen (roughly 3% of Japan's GDP) and counting you can imagine how the demand for Yen is, well, about to skyrocket.

The Japanese people are still dealing with the catastrophe.  Speculators in the currency markets are, as always, one step ahead of what must happen and are sapping liquidity, in terms of Yen, at a rapid pace.  This activity, taken at face value, will presumably wreak havoc for Japanese Government Bond prices, the prices of stocks traded on the Nikkei, and the US Dollar.  These three markets will crash if nature is allowed to take its course.  You see, in the tipsy turvy world of currencies, to buy a yen more often than not means that a US dollar, a JGB, or a stock listed on the Nikkei is sold on the other side of the trade.

The most sought after currency in the world, at least until the G7 meet tomorrow

The accelerated selling of dollars, as Jim Rogers points out, could cause the endgame scenario for the US currency to swiftly come upon the world.  Mr. Rogers goes so far as to call this a "Moment of Truth for the dollar."

You can see the brief interview by clicking here.

Of course, as Mr. Rogers points out, it may be time to buy the dollar, if for some reason it is to survive as a top tier currency.  We have lived just long enough to know that anything is possible.

The G7 meeting today is VERY IMPORTANT.  It should not be, if only the world had not left the embrace of sound money 40 years ago, but unfortunately, it is.  For the G7 will essentially decide whether to keep the Dollar on life support or to pull the plug.

What will they do?

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the legion of bureaucrats who are charged with cranking out data in order to support FED policy, appears to be starting its own form of political protest against the loose dollar policies followed by the Federal Reserve.  After faithfully cranking out the core CPI, a key statistic here at The Mint, for years and watching it slowly become distorted into the puppet statistic that it now is, they came out with a data point in 2002 called the "Chained Consumer Price Index" which takes into account a rolling average of food and fuel costs, which the core CPI now blatantly ignores.

This index hit a record high in February, confirming what most average Americans already know:  It has never been more expensive to live in the Land of the Free.

Will we be Brave enough to return to sound money?  You, fellow taxpayer, can take a step in that direction with just a few simple keystrokes.  APMEX, our affiliate, is running a contest.  They are giving away one 1 oz gold eagle coin each month.  All you have to do to enter is register by clicking this link and filling in the blanks.  You can register to win once per month.  If you so desire, click here and Register at APMEX.com Today!

By definition, the black hole of debt will always grow at a more rapid pace than the worthless currency that is printed in an attempt to fill it.  If the black hole collapses (i.e. widespread default occurs), hyperinflation will occur quickly.  If currency becomes scarce, people will find another medium of exchange, likely gold and/or silver.

Either way, the world will be out of this mess before long, so hold on to your hats, it is bound to be a wild ride to the other side!

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email:  davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  If you enjoy or at least tolerate The Mint please share us with your friends, family, and associates!

Key Indicators for Friday, March 18th, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.32
Oil Price per Barrel:  $103.11
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  3.25%
FED Target Rate:  0.14%

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,404

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  4.25%
Unemployment Rate:  8.9%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,775
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,843,500,000,000
M2 Monetary Base:  $8,974,000,000,000

*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

Japanese, Euro and US FEDs Go Green for St. Patrick's Day, Quadruple Witching Ends Tomorrow

3/17/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

Quadruple Witching is upon the markets.  For those of you who are wondering, Quadruple witching is a market term for the third Friday in the months of March, June, September, and December when stock market index futures, stock market index options, stock futures, and stock options all expire on the same day.  In other words, everyone must either take their medicine or look for an escape hatch from undesirable market positions.

If quadruple witching does not phase you, our affiliate TradeKing will let you trade all of these options at rock bottom prices.  You can open an account by clicking their banner to the right or if you find computers cumbersome and now trade from your smart phone, check out the New TradeKing iPhone app.


This quadruple witching phenomenon is set to occur tomorrow which may be one reason that the US and Euro FEDs are printing money like there is no tomorrow.  The only refuge from this monetary disaster are to hold wealth in silver and/or gold coins and possibly real estate.  

Avoid getting pinched!  Get a start on putting your wealth into gold and silver this St. Patrick's day, click here and Register at APMEX.com Today!  There is no obligation and you can register each month for a chance to win a 1oz gold eagle, worth $1,402 at today's prices.

Meanwhile, events continue to spiral out of control in northeastern Japan.  Things are spiraling out of control in the Middle East as well, but what normally would be front page news simply pales in comparison to the havoc that nature has wrought on the Land of the Rising Sun.  While tens of thousands wait anxiously in freezing temperatures as water and heating fuel run low, the world sits on edge waiting for confirmation that there has been a meltdown at the Daiichi nuclear plant.


In the face of such an obvious humanitarian crisis, one that will mark a turning point for Japan and possibly the world, the Japanese, American, and Euro FEDs are unleashing a virtual Tsunami of cash into the world wide financial system.  This system is broken beyond repair.  It has been broken by the same FEDs who purport to save it from certain catastrophe.  

Like the devil who has been unleashed to roam the earth before he is thrown into the lake of fire for eternity, the FEDs are no longer making use of deception in their counterfeiting operation.  The US Government is broke, half of the European Governments are broke, and the Japanese Government's balance sheet is not to be believed.  They can no longer "bail each other out" as has been the case ever since WWII.

At this point all of the money shoveled into the self destructing financial system is being vaporized almost immediately by the black hole of debt that the FEDs are trying to fill.  This game was innocent enough while it was only the banks and financial companies getting shellacked.  Now that this funny money is baking its way into food and energy prices, it is literally a problem for everybody on the planet.

The good news is that the economy appears to be picking up.  As long as people have needs, there will be people working to fulfill those needs.  The people with the needs will work to fulfill others needs to be able to pay for the fulfillment of their own needs.  This is how a natural, organic, healthy economy works.  Once the Government and Banking cartel begin to interfere, you can see how things could quickly go wrong.  Yet for some amazing reason, the Government and Banking cartel are believed to be essential to the healthy working of the economy.

They are not, and the sooner the world wakes up to this fact, the better.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email:  davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  If you enjoy or at least tolerate The Mint please share us with your friends, family, and associates!

Key Indicators for Thursday, March 17th, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.18
Oil Price per Barrel:  $98.26
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  3.21%
FED Target Rate:  0.14%

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,402

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  4.25%
Unemployment Rate:  8.9%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,613
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,932,200,000,000
M2 Monetary Base:  $8,888,200,000,000

*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.