Friday, September 27, 2013

Why the FED will Increase the Target Rate Before Tapering and the DC Budget/Debt Ceiling Paralysis Matters Not

9/27/2013 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…
Autumn is upon us here in the Northwest. As in most places, it is a refreshing return to the dance of life that we will live together over the next nine months under the requisite cover of rain and cloud.
If occurrences in nature can be trusted as future economic guidance, we are setting up for a phenomenal year in terms of production. Salmon runs up the Columbia basin, which were once nearly extinguished altogether, are crushing all previous records this year, and word is that the Tuna catches in terms of quantity are staggering. Corn yields further east in Minnesota are on pace to increase even on a decrease in acreage planted.
Even the Mushroom pickers are reporting a bumper crop.
Mushroom picking; illustration to III tome "Pan Tadeusz" circa 1860 by Franciszek Kostrzewski
Mushroom picking; illustration to III tome “Pan Tadeusz” circa 1860 by Franciszek Kostrzewski
Nature is doing its part to provide for us on any number of fronts, despite what Malthusian apologists and central planners may say, the only thing holding humankind back are the restrictions that it places upon itself.
Chief among these restrictions is the unnatural monopoly that exists with regards to the production of money and credit, which paradoxically are one in the same in the current “debt is money” scheme under which the entire financial world operates. For the uninitiated, the monopoly that we speak of is that of the Central Banking institutions, which have been given unchecked authority to manipulate (notice our choice of terminology in place of the more quaint verb “setting” which is normally propagated) short (and now long term) interest rates as well as to determine what serves as legal tender.
Add to these monopolistic practices the ultimate authority to collect taxes and the extent of the monopoly which Central Banks have been granted becomes clear.
Given the existence of this monopoly, it is little wonder that those who make their living by working closely with money and debt, as we do, or those who hold a large amount of money and debt instruments examine the actions of the Central Banks with a great deal of anticipation and scrutiny.
The Central Banks are not to be watched because they have anything special or relevant to offer in the form of clairvoyance or enlightenment, rather, they are to be watched in the same way a pack of dogs must be watched when boarding an airplane, for their movements, while unproductive, tend to bother and in the worst of cases, cause harm to the rest of the passengers.
Against this backdrop, the captive watchers of the Federal Reserve were somewhat surprised this past Thursday that the Central Bank decided to delay their much anticipated “tapering” operation. The decision to leave the current amount of money printing (Quantitative easing, that is) at current levels, which amount to roughly $115 Billion per month, was welcomed with a certain degree of shock by those who were certain that the program would be discontinued in light of the recent strength in the US economic data reports.
Entitlement: Why the FED will Raise the Target Rate Before Tapering
The decision did not surprise us, however, for the following reason. The Quantitative easing program has essentially become an entitlement in the sense that it guarantees the credit system a buyer of last resort for the current level of mortgage backed and other securities which the FED purchases from their holders. Were this program to be dialed back, it is clear which entities would be hurt by the action. Entitlements of this sort are nearly impossible to take away once they are in place.
On the other hand, the other tool that the FED would theoretically use to signal it was responding to strong economic data by working to tighten credit (something that will not occur within the next three to five years, no matter what the FED does), is by manipulating short term interest rates via the SOMA and POMO. They are more likely to test the waters by letting rates drift higher as this is an action that does not necessarily have direct consequences for certain market actors. While some of the consequences are predictable, they are in the end indirect consequences, which give them less the feel of an entitlement, which is what the QE program has become.
In any event, by espousing a policy of giving “Forward Guidance,” which theoretically gives juice to existing policy actions by providing certainty to market participants as to how long certain policies will be in place, the FED is now, monthly, placed in the impossible position of showing the world how much its “word” is worth, as Forward Guidance only works if that guidance is actually reliable.
You see, contrary to what academics such as Michael Woodford, who is credited with originating the Forward Guidance principle, might say, the word of an organization and/or individual, like a debt instrument, can also be discounted based on the prevailing belief as to the extent to which the promises of the individual and/or organization can be trusted.
While the actions of the Federal Reserve, whatever they may be, are for some reason seen as immediately effective is beyond us. In our models it is clear that any action taken by the FED with regards to interest rates does not significantly impact price and wage levels outside of the financial sphere for three to five years. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve actions are observed by algorithms which “think” differently than we do, and it is these algorithms which drive large scale equity trading circa 2013.
Fiscal Policy vs Price Levels: Why the DC Budget/Debt Ceiling Paralysis Matter Not
Perhaps even more ineffective and innocuous to the economy in the short term than Federal Reserve action are the actions that are taken (or not taken) by the Federal Government.
The news is currently ablaze with the current scenario in Congress which has managed to entangle the Federal Budget, the Debt Ceiling, and Obamacare in the same line of debate. This type of stalemate in terms of budget matters is absolutely normal and to be expected of technically bankrupt entities.
The past three years, which have seen at least two other debates around the debt ceiling as well as various sequesters, furloughs, disastrous tax and fiscal policy, and arguably a complete failure of any inkling of “Forward Guidance” out of the Federal Government, have taught the economic community one very important lesson:
Despite members of each party assuring the public that the outcome of these debates and any failure to act will destroy the economy, whether these debates are resolved or not is of little consequence. The reason that they are inconsequential is that the major actors in the US economy, which are and always will be at least one step ahead of both politicians and central bankers, have already discounted the true impact and likelihood of government action by tacitly adjusting their activities to adapt to the inherent uncertainty.
So relax, the no matter what the FED or Congress do or fail to do, the risks remain firmly on the upside for at least three to five more years or the day that the current “debt is money” system fails, whatever comes first.
Stay tuned and Trust Jesus!
Stay Fresh!
Key Indicators for September 27, 2013
Copper Price per Lb: $3.29
Oil Price per Barrel: $102.77
Corn Price per Bushel: $4.54
10 Yr US Treasury Bond: 2.62%
Mt Gox Bitcoin price in US: $140.00
Gold Price Per Ounce: $1,337
MINT Perceived Target Rate*: 0.25%